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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-August 17, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. President Donald Trump disbanded two high-profile business advisory councils on Wednesday after several chief executives quit in protest over his remarks on weekend violence in Virginia. Trump said he would dissolve the American Manufacturing Council and the Strategic and Policy Forum whose members include some business tycoons. A parade of prominent Republicans and U.S. ally Britain also rebuked Trump, leaving him increasingly isolated after his comments on Tuesday about the bloodshed in the college town of Charlottesville further enveloped his seven-month-old presidency in controversy.

2. Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for a halt to further interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting. Elsewhere in the minutes, Fed officials reinforced expectations of an announcement in September to begin reducing the central bank's holdings of bonds. Several policymakers were prepared to announce a start date last month, but the Fed decided to wait as "most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting."

3. U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in July as the construction of multi-family houses tumbled to a 10-month low, but strong job growth is expected to continue to support the housing market recovery. Housing starts declined 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, hurt also by a drop in groundbreaking on single-family projects, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. June's sales pace was revised down to 1.21 million units from the previously reported 1.22 million units.

4. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference, two sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus. An ECB spokesman said that Draghi will focus on the theme of the symposium, fostering a dynamic global economy, in his Aug. 25 remarks, while the sources added that he was keen to hold off on the policy discussion until the autumn, as agreed at the last rate-setting meeting in July.

5. Britain's unemployment labor market bucked tepid economic growth in the second quarter as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to its lowest since 1975, official data showed on Wednesday. The unemployment rate in the three months to the end of June fell to 4.4 percent, against the average forecast for it to hold at 4.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists. Workers' total earnings including bonuses rose by an annual 2.1 percent in the three months to June, compared with 1.9 percent in the period to May. Overall wage growth in real terms fell by 0.5 percent.

Domestic News
6. China's short-term growth outlook has strengthened but there is growing risk of a sharp medium-term adjustment due to reliance on stimulus to meet targets and a credit-expansion path that may be "dangerous", the International Monetary Fund said.

7. China's M2 growth continued to slow to new lows in the last month, but social financing growth remained high and new loans rose sharply on an annual basis despite of a seasonal decline month-on-month, suggesting strong financing in real economy and better-than-expected financial data in July. Finance sector continued to support real economy although macro data showed downward economic pressure, market participants said. The People's Bank of China will maintain its "prudent and neutral" monetary policy to provide a neutral and appropriate financial environment.

8. Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in an altercation in the western Himalayas on Tuesday, Indian sources said, further raising tensions between the two countries which are already locked in a two-month standoff in another part of the disputed border. A source in New Delhi, who had been briefed on the military situation on the border, said soldiers foiled a bid by a group of Chinese troops to enter Indian territory in Ladakh, near the Pangong lake.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar fell on Wednesday after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting that showed the policymakers had grown increasingly worried about weak U.S. inflation readings, suggesting that the Fed may hold off on raising interest rates. The dollar sank to session lows against the yen, euro, Swiss franc and a number of other currencies after the minutes were released. The euro was last up 0.25 percent against the dollar at $1.1763. The dollar was down 0.45 percent against the yen, to 110.17 yen, and 0.7 percent lower against the Swiss franc, at 0.9659 franc.

2. Home Market
China's yuan fell against the U.S. dollar along with lower midpoints in the morning session on Wednesday, with its trading band narrowing down. Upbeat U.S. economic data pushed up the dollar index, raising bullish sentiment in the U.S. currency and elasticity in yuan, traders said. Forex rates are expected to track the dollar. Investors can wait for forex settlement at around 6.7.

Precious Metals
Gold rose about 1 percent on Wednesday, shaking off two days of losses, as the dollar edged lower after the release of the minutes from Federal Reserve's July meeting at which policymakers voted unanimously to keep U.S. interest rates unchanged. Spot gold was up 0.9 percent to $1,282.71 per ounce, after rising as much as 1 percent to a session high of $1,283.90. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to settle at $1,282.90 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday even though U.S. crude stockpiles declined by the most in a year, as data suggesting domestic production was edging higher stoked worries about the global crude glut. Brent crude futures settled down 53 cents, or about 1 percent, at $50.27 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $46.78 a barrel, down 77 cents, or 1.6 percent.

2.Base Metals
Zinc prices surged to their highest in almost a decade on Wednesday while aluminium and copper hit their highest since 2014 as rises across most industrial metals triggered pre-set buy orders and a wave of speculative buying. Benchmark zinc on the London Metal Exchange closed up 5.4 percent at $3,119 a tonne, on track for its biggest gain since November and rising above the key technical level of $3,000 for the first time since October 2007. Three-month LME aluminium ended up 2.2 percent at $2,094 a tonne after hitting $2,104.50, the highest since September 2014. Benchmark copper finished 2.4 percent higher at $6,532 having touched $6,576.50, the highest since November 2014.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with benchmark yields retreating from one-week highs as U.S. President Donald Trump's dissolving of two business advisory groups and the Federal Reserve's record of its July policy meeting raised economic worries. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was 2.227 percent, down 4 basis points from late Tuesday, while the 30-year bond yield was 2.811 percent, nearly 3 basis point lower from Tuesday's close, Reuters data showed.

2. Chinese bonds
Yields of China's inter-bank cash bonds were traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, while T-bond futures fell, extending their weak momentum after financial data was released late in yesterday's session. The net capital injection by the central bank earlier in the open market had a limited impact on improving liquidity and market morale in cash bonds.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks ended slightly firmer on Wednesday but off the day's highs as worries mounted over President Donald Trump's agenda and minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting suggested policymakers are worried about weak inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25.88 points, or 0.12 percent, to end at 22,024.87, the S&P 500 gained 3.5 points, or 0.14 percent, to 2,468.11 and the Nasdaq Composite added 12.10 points, or 0.19 percent, to 6,345.11.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday as investors took heart from strong quarterly earnings despite signs of slowing growth in China. The Hang Seng index ended up 0.9 percent at 27,409.07 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.7 percent to 10,817.88.

3. China Equities
China's stocks edged down in diminishing volume on Wednesday, dented by cyclical sector and low appetite for chasing highs. Middle and small caps, led by GEM, bucked the trend in brisk trading, but failed to lift the market up. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.81 points or 0.15 percent to 3,246.45. The turnover fell to 200.6 billion yuan from yesterday's 204.4 billion. The CSI index shed 0.13 percent to 3,701.42.


(2017-08-17)
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