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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-October 19, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. The U.S. economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace in September through early October despite the impact of hurricanes on some regions, the Federal Reserve said in its latest snapshot of the U.S. economy released on Wednesday, but there were still few signs of an acceleration in inflation. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hit during the survey period and will have a negative effect on third-quarter economic growth, the Fed has said, although it expects the impact to be temporary.

2. President Donald Trump will announce his decision on who will be the chair of the Federal Reserve in the "coming days," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said on Wednesday. The president is expected to make his announcement before leaving on a trip to Asia in early November.

3. U.S. housing starts decreased 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.127 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. That was the lowest level since September 2016 and marked the third monthly decline in starts, as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma disrupted the construction of single-family homes in the South, suggesting housing probably remained a drag on economic growth in the third quarter.

4. OPEC is leaning towards extending a deal with Russia and other non-members to cut oil supply for a further nine months, four OPEC sources said, although stronger-than-expected demand growth may allow the group to delay a decision until early next year.

Domestic News
5. At the opening of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Wednesday, Xi Jinping made an three-and-a-half-hour address, stressing strict governance over the Party and improvement of the Party's ability to govern and lead, and sending clear signals on China's economic, political and social life, including deepening supply-side reform and wiping out corruption.

6. China's President Xi Jinping said China laid out a confident vision for a more prosperous nation amid mounting worldwide challenges and difficulties. He urged Chinese people to be more committed to new era of reform and innovation, breaking all barriers and preventing risks.

7. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be opened in Beijing in 18-24 October 2017, said Tuo Zhen, spokesman for the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He said China's efforts to reduce debt and stable economic growth should not be viewed as being in opposition, quoting "In the long term, proactive deleveraging helps to eliminate risks that could impact steady and healthy economic development."

8. China's holdings of US bonds, notes and bills advanced for the seventh straight month to US$1.2 trillion, an increase of US$34.5 billion from a month earlier, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday in Washington. In the past 12 months, China's holdings of US Treasuries rose 1.3 percent, remaining the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar reversed gains on Wednesday, losing steam after data showed U.S. homebuilding fell last month, and was on track to snap four days of gains, even as higher U.S. Treasury yields provided some support. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.12 percent at 93.371, after rising as high as 93.797. It was 0.61 percent higher against the Japanese yen at 112.87 yen.

2. Home Market
China's yuan edged up against the dollar in the morning session, while the official yuan midpoint plunged over 100 pips. A firmer dollar index dragged the midpoint rates down, trader said. Yuan is widely expected to keep wide rangebound during the 19th National Congress, and due to strong mid-month forex buying.

Precious Metals
Gold fell for a third straight session on Wednesday on pressure from the U.S. dollar's gains for much of the session and amid speculation that the next chair of the Federal Reserve could be a policy hawk. Spot gold was down at $1,280.77 an ounce, having touched its lowest since Oct. 9 at $1,276.73. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $3.20 or 0.3 percent, at $1,283 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled slightly higher on Wednesday, with Brent touching three-week highs and then retreating after a surprising drop in U.S. refining rates and an unexpected build in fuel stocks signaled slower demand in the world's top oil consumer. Brent crude futures settled up 27 cents to $58.15 a barrel, off the three-week high of $58.54 a barrel hit earlier on worries about ongoing tensions around oil-rich Iraq and Iran. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 16 cents higher at $52.04 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
Copper prices slipped on Wednesday due to profit-taking after the recent rally to three-year highs but expectations of growing demand in top consumer China helped limit losses. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.5 percent at $6,990 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
Yields on 2-year Treasury notes rose to their highest since November 2008 on Wednesday as expectations for tighter global monetary policy pushed bond investors to sell shorter-dated debt. The yield spread between U.S. 2-year government debt and its German counterpart jumped to the highest level since February 2000, as the European Central Bank was seen as less hawkish than the U.S. Federal Reserve.

2. Chinese bonds
Liquidity in China's inter-bank market remained loose. Reverse repo expanded for the second consecutive day in the open market, focusing on hedge reverse repo and MFL maturities. Pressure on liquidity will be limited due to clear signal sent by the first day of the 19th National Congress on keeping steady economic growth, and as impact of tax-paying will be priced in the next week.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 23,000 for the first time on Wednesday, driven by a jump in IBM after it hinted at a return to revenue growth. The Dow hit 22,000 on Aug. 2, only 54 trading days earlier and roughly half the time it took the index to move from 21,000 to 22,000. This marks the fourth time this year the Dow has reached a 1,000-point milestone.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks inched up on Wednesday, with listings in the city of some China-based companies advancing on the first day of the key Communist Party Congress in Beijing. The Hang Seng index added 0.1 percent, to 28,711.76 points. The China Enterprises Index, an index tracking major domestic firms listed in Hong Kong, gained 0.5 percent, to 11,621.95 points. Sectors performance was mixed, with gains in developers offset by weakness in resources firms.

3. China Equities
China's stocks snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday as investors stayed on the sidelines on the first day of the 19th National Congress. Led by big-cap blue chips, major indexes were kept steady with turnover remaining at lows. The Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3,381.79, up 9.75 points or 0.29 percent with a trading range of only 12 points. The trading volume of Shanghai A shares rose to 194 billion from 162.5 billion. The CSI 300 rose 0.79 percent to 3,944.16.


(2017-10-19)
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