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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-April 27, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold recovered from a two-week low, up 0.37 percent, after Trump proposed cutting the corporate and pass-through business profits tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent or more, as well as offering tax cuts to average Americans in a rough outline of his tax policy goals. However, tax reform's impact on gold could be transitory since the final version of any bill is likely to look starkly different. Gold rallied to session highs on short-covering after the key $1,260 level held multiple times today. Market participants are turning their focus to the European Central Bank’s meeting due on Thursday. Any dovish tone or measures will push gold further higher.
On technical front, the MACD index showed a bearish market morale, but the momentum indexes indicated a steady market. Fundamentals will dominate bullion prices in coming sessions. The yellow metal can find support and resistance at the 200-day moving average of $1,252 and $1,295 - the peak since April - respectively.

Silver
Silver fell slightly, extending losses but with support at the 100-day moving average of $17.36. The MACD and momentum index showed a bearish tone. Investors are not recommended to short silver in heavy positions in view of the uncertainties brought by the ECB meeting on Thursday and GDP report on Friday.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rebounded from early losses on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Department said crude stocks dropped 3.6 million barrels last week, more than double what was expected which encouraged buying. The government data was a surprise the day after industry group the American Petroleum Institute said its data showed a build. Market players still worried about a global supply glut in view of limited gains. The rising momentum was weak.

Copper
London copper extended gains on Wednesday, despite at a slower pace, in the wake of the French election. London Metal Exchange copper edged up by 0.2 percent to $5,715 a tonne.

Soybean
Chicago soybean futures declined on Wednesday as corn also sagged. Soybeans faced additional pressure from weakness in Brazil's currency, the real, which could prompt Brazilian farmers to sell more of their record-large soybean harvest, increasing export sales from the country. July soybeans ended down 8-1/2 cents at $9.56-1/2. CBOT May soyoil fell 0.31 cents to 32.16 cents per lb. CBOT May soymeal closed down $4 at $313.70 a tonne.


Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Yang Hui


(2017-04-28)
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