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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - August 10, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold was near flat on Thursday after two straight sessions of gains as a stronger U.S. dollar index weighed on upside momentum, though the precious metal took some comfort from a steadier Chinese currency. Spot gold was flat at $1,213.05 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $1.10, or 0.1 percent, at $1,219.90 per ounce.

Gold has been highly correlated with the yuan in recent weeks, with the Chinese currency acting as a proxy for concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions. The yuan steadied against the dollar as greenback bulls remained wary of potential policy moves to stabilize the Chinese currency.

U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected in the latest week, signifying a stronger economy and little necessity for safe-haven bids, like non-yielding gold. We maintain our view that gold would be in a holding pattern until more data is released.

Silver

Silver rose 0.4 percent to $15.45 an ounce after hitting six-day highs at $15.51. Still entrapping in current trading range, the white metal will find support and resistance at $15.20 and $15.70 respectively. U.S. Consumer Price Index figures, which are expected early on Friday, will determine the dollar and precious metals.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Crude prices settled slightly lower on Thursday, extending the previous session's losses as the escalating China-U.S. trade dispute casts doubt over the outlook for oil demand. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents to settle at $72.07 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 13 cents to $66.81 a barrel.

Both benchmarks tumbled more than 3 percent on Wednesday after U.S. data showed a smaller-than-expected weekly draw in crude inventories and a surprise build of 2.9 million barrels in gasoline supplies. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 1.7 million-barrel draw in gasoline stocks. Falling to around the 100-day moving average, U.S. crude is expected to find strong support at and rebound from this level.

Copper

China's stock markets and yuan gained on Thursday, helping to lift industrial metals, even after China the day before said it was slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, the latest step in a worsening trade dispute. China's factory price inflation cooled in July amid a slowdown in economic growth. Copper ended up 0.8 at $6,225 a tonne.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures retreated on Thursday after two sessions of gains in a profit-taking and position-squaring setback ahead of Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and demand report.

Chicago Board of Trade September soybeans fell 6-3/4 cents to $8.93 a bushel, while November soybean shed 6-1/2 cents to $9.04 a bushel. Soymeal and soyoil futures also fell. September soymeal was down $2.90 to $332.60 a tonne, while September soyoil slipped 0.04 cents to 28.55 cents.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Huang Han


(2018-08-13)
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