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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - August 2, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold eased on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but characterized the economy as strong, keeping the central bank on track to increase borrowing costs in September.

Gold stayed weaker after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady as expected. The Fed said economic growth has been rising strongly and the job market has continued to strengthen while inflation has remained near the central bank's 2 percent target since its last policy meeting in June, when it raised rates. The Fed currently expects another two rate rises by the end of the year. Investors had all but ruled out a move at this week's meeting, with their sights set on rate hikes next month and in December.

Gold continues to flounder near recent lows as trade disputes with China, and other global counterparts would continue to support the dollar.

On the daily chart, gold pulled back on Wednesday, crossing below the support of $1,220 to $1,217. A downtrend is expected to continue in the near term with the next support at around $1,210.

Silver

Silver declined 0.6 percent to $15.42 an ounce, paring all the gains in the last three trading sessions. The white metal is expected to remain at recent lows with support and resistance at $15.20 and $15.90 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Wednesday as a surprise increase in U.S. crude stockpiles fed concerns about global oversupply, while investors worried that trade tensions could hit energy demand. Brent crude futures fell $1.82 to settle at $72.39 a barrel, a 2.5 percent loss. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.10 to settle at $67.66 a barrel, a 1.6 percent loss.

U.S. crude inventories rose 3.8 million barrels last week as imports jumped, the government's Energy Information Administration said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decrease of 2.8 million barrels. Still, oil futures pared losses briefly after the data, which also showed growing U.S. Demand.

It was surprising to see the build in crude, but it was a little bit offset by the bigger-than-expected draw in gasoline and the draw in Cushing. Oil prices are also being pressured by concern that global trade tensions could crimp economic growth. China said it would hit back if the United States takes further steps hindering trade.

Copper

Copper and other base metals slipped on Wednesday on fears of slower demand due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and worries about slowing growth in top metals consumer China.

Washington plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods after initially setting them at 10 percent, according to a source familiar with the matter. Also weighing on sentiment was data showing that China's manufacturing sector grew at the slowest pace in eight months in July as export orders declined.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 2 percent at $6,172 a tonne. Copper shed 4.9 percent in July, but recently rebounded from a one-year low of $5,988 touched on July 19. Factory growth stuttered across the world in July, heightening concerns about the global economic outlook.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday on worries that U.S. President Donald Trump would intensify a trade battle with China, the world's biggest importer of the oilseed.

The November soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 17 cents to $8.86-3/4 a bushel, while the new-crop November soybean futures contract dropped 17-1/4 cents to $9.01-3/4 a bushel on profit-taking after hitting a six-week high.

The losses in soy came after a source familiar with the matter said Trump was planning to raise a proposed tariff rate on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent. China said it would hit back if the United States takes further steps hindering trade.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its weekly export sales report on Thursday. Trade analysts anticipated old-crop soybean numbers between 150,000 to 500,000 metric tons, and new-crop between 300,000 to 700,000 metric tons.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Li Nan


(2018-08-02)
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