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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - August 6, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold rallied 1 percent on Friday, after falling to the lowest in nearly 17 months when weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data pushed the dollar lower and a move by the Chinese central bank lifted its currency.

Spot gold was up 0.60 percent at $1,214.79 an ounce, after rallying 1 percent to $1,220.01. Earlier it dropped to $1,204, the lowest since March 15, 2017. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3 percent at $1,223.20 an ounce.

We believe that the move up is temporary here due to the miss in the jobs number. The dollar index turned negative after data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July. Earlier, the dollar had climbed to a two-week high against a basket of major currencies and scaled a 14-month peak versus the Chinese yuan. China's offshore yuan also reversed, rising sharply after its central bank acted to curb short selling of the currency.

Spot gold, which was on track to close the week down 0.3 percent, its seventh weekly decline in the past eight, may fall toward the next support at $1,194, as it has resumed its downtrend from $1,309.30, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Silver

Silver rose 0.7 percent to $15.41 an ounce, its eighth weekly decline in a row. We maintain our view that silver will keep trading in a tight range with support and resistance at $15.20 and $15.90 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Crude futures pulled back on Friday, giving up gains from the previous session as trade concerns weighed on the market and fueled concerns about demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 47 cents at $68.49 a barrel. Brent crude futures settled at $73.21 per barrel, down 24 cents from their last close. Both grades briefly traded down more than $1 a barrel. U.S. crude ended the week down 0.4 percent, while Brent has fallen 1.5 percent in the week so far.

Fears that Chinese demand could taper fueled the pullback on Friday after state oil major Sinopec cut its purchases of U.S. crude. China's Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec, has suspended crude oil imports from the United States due to the growing trade spat between Washington and Beijing, three sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.

Copper

Copper turned positive on Friday as the dollar lost ground after weaker-than-expected U.S jobs data, but ended the week lower as trade tensions between the United States and China weighed. U.S. jobs growth slowed more than expected in July, likely due to companies' struggles to find qualified workers, and the unemployment rate declined, pointing to tightening labour market conditions.

Gains in metals were kept in check after China's Commerce Ministry said Beijing's new set of proposed import tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods were rational and restrained, warning it reserved the right of further countermeasures in the intensifying trade war. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended 1.1 percent lower at $6,206 per tonne, after falling as low as $6,074.50. It touched a two-week low of $6,066 on Thursday.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures staged a late-session short-covering recovery on Friday after touching a one-week low amid worries about an escalating trade war between the United States and China.

Chicago Board of Trade September soybeans rose 4-1/2 cents to $8.91-1/2. For the week, it was up 1.9 percent, rising for the third consecutive week. CBOT November soybeans ended 4-3/4 cents higher at $9.02-1/4 per bushel, closing out the week up 1.9 percent.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Li Nan


(2018-08-06)
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