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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - May 24, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold prices backed off highs on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of currencies while investors awaited minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting for clues on interest rate hike path.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,293.41 per ounce, after touching its highest since May 15 at $1,297.84. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled down $2.40, or 0.2 percent, at $1,289.60 per ounce.

Bullion was lifted after U.S. President Donald Trump cited a "substantial chance" his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will not take place as planned on June 12 amid concerns that Kim is resistant to giving up his nuclear weapons.

But investors worried about precious metals prices as most Federal Reserve policymakers thought it likely another interest rate increase would be warranted "soon" if the U.S. economic outlook remains intact, minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting showed.

Gold is expected to remain rangebound as the yellow metal failed to break above $1,300.

Silver

Silver was down 0.8 percent at $16.39 an ounce on Wednesday, snapping a five-day winning streak. It hit as low as $16.32 during the session, unleashing most bearish bets after the release of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting minutes.

In the near term, silver prices will likely recover. We maintain our view that investors shall keep an eye on the resistance around $16.62. Failure to cross above the level may suggest limited gains.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil benchmarks fell on Wednesday after an unexpected build in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories despite strong demand, and as traders weighed a possible increase in OPEC crude output to cover any shortfalls in supply from Iran and Venezuela.

Brent crude futures slipped 23 cents to settle at $79.80 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 36 cents to $71.84 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories rose 5.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks increased by 1.9 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said.

The increase in U.S. inventories came from a combination of reduced exports and rising imports. But with Memorial Day Weekend and summer driving season coming up, we were expecting a draw.

The widening spread between Brent and U.S. crude make the latter more attractive to investors. We maintain a bullish view on crude prices as U.S. crude’s export and import improves.

Copper

Copper posted its biggest one-day drop in nearly a month on Wednesday as fading optimism that a China-U.S. trade stand-off was at an end knocked appetite for cyclical assets, helping pull the metal from the previous day's high.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell as low as $6,805 a tonne before ending the day at $6,867 a tonne, down 1.6 percent. That is its biggest retracement of any day since April 27.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures scaled to a 2-1/2-week high on Wednesday as signs of renewed Chinese demand for U.S. exports lifted prices for a fourth straight session.
Chicago Board of Trade July soybeans settled 8-3/4 cents higher at $10.39-1/4 a bushel. CBOT July soymeal rose $3.2 to $380.7 per ton. CBOT July soyoil ended up 0.19 cents to 31.7 per pound.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Huang Han


(2018-05-24)
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