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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-October 19, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold fell for a third straight session on Wednesday, seeking support from $1,280, on pressure from the U.S. dollar's gains for much of the session and amid speculation that the next chair of the Federal Reserve could be a policy hawk. As many as five people are in the running to be the next Fed chair. This will be the driving force in coming sessions.
Technical front, we maintained our view. Gold still remains at the upper end of its previous trading range despite of yesterday’s decline. The support at $1,260 shall be closely watched. In case that the support is breached, investors shall square their long positions to stop loss.

Silver
Silver failed to generate an independent trend, tracking gold down to form a cross-star pattern on chart. Technically, silver is seeking support from the 100-day moving average. Back to the mid-band of its previous trading range, the movement around $16.5 shall be closely watched. In case of breach, investors shall square their long positions. As the 100-day moving average kept on track, investors are recommended to hold their long positions.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled slightly higher on Wednesday, with Brent touching three-week highs and then retreating after a surprising drop in U.S. refining rates and an unexpected build in fuel stocks signaled slower demand in the world's top oil consumer.
Brent crude futures settled up 27 cents to $58.15 a barrel, off the three-week high of $58.54 a barrel hit earlier. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 16 cents higher at $52.04 a barrel.
U.S. crude inventories fell 5.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, exceeding analysts' expectations. Refiners throttled down activity as the autumn maintenance season got underway, and refining rates fell 4.7 percentage points to 84.5 percent of total capacity, the seasonally slowest rate of output since 2011.
Inventories of gasoline and diesel rose, reviving concerns about elevated stockpiles during a time of slower demand. In the near term, oil prices are expected to hold above $50.

Copper
Copper prices slipped on Wednesday due to profit-taking after the recent rally to three-year highs but expectations of growing demand in top consumer China helped limit losses. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.5 percent at $6,990 a tonne. Prices hit $7,177 on Monday, their highest since July 2014.
The market is looking for announcements from China's twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, which started on Wednesday, to boost manufacturing and construction activity and fuel demand for industrial metals. People are expecting major social building initiatives and all sorts of explosive announcements that could drive up copper prices.
Funds' net long copper positions on the LME at 61,302 lots, or more than 1.5 million tonnes, have risen about 13 percent since Oct. 2 and is at the highest level since the middle of September. Copper is expected to retain its upward momentum.

Soybean
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended fractionally lower on Wednesday after a choppy, seesaw session, pressured by drier weather in the U.S. Midwest that should speed the pace of harvest, traders said. CBOT November soybeans settled down 1/2 cent at $9.84-1/4 a bushel. Market underpinned by technical buying and worries about dry conditions slowing the pace of planting in Brazil. The trading volume of soybean, soymeal and soyoil was expected to stand at 177,382 lots, 54,448 lots, and 56,303 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Cheng Yu


(2017-10-19)
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