I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold edged higher on Tuesday as the dollar drifted ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. An expected Federal Reserve rate rise was mostly priced in by traders, who will be looking for clues on the future pace of rate hikes from the central bank. "Upside scenarios for gold need the Fed sound a bit more dovish, but there's not a lot of room for that at the moment in view of strong U.S. economic data .

U.S. consumer confidence surged to an 18-year high in September as households grew more upbeat about the labor market. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 138.4 this month. That was the best reading since September 2000 and the index is not too far from an all-time high of 144.7 reached that year. Upbeat consumer confidence will underpin the strength of the U.S. dollar, imposing more pressure on bullion.

On chart, gold has been lingering around $1,200 for a month, seeking more clues for direction. The MACD index suggests that an upside appears on the radar if current situations continue.

Silver

Silver gained 1.6 percent at $14.45 an ounce, earlier reaching $14.56, its highest since Aug. 31. Prices remained low, dampened by risk appetite, and did not track gold in the latter’s upswing. We maintain our view that a rally in gold prices will push up silver prices at a faster pace.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices rose Tuesday on global supply concerns following U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports. In a speech before the United Nations, Trump reiterated calls on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more oil and stop raising prices.

The so-called "OPEC+" group, which includes Russia, Oman and Kazakhstan, met over the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the group was in no rush to do so. Mohammad Barkindo, OPEC secretary general, said in Madrid on Tuesday OPEC and its partners should cooperate to ensure they do not "fall from one crisis to another."

Brent crude futures settled up 67 cents at $81.87 a barrel. U.S. crude futures rose 20 cents to $72.28 a barrel, close to the highest since mid-July. Recent short supply will continue to boost oil prices.

Copper

Copper, zinc and other base metals slid on Tuesday, rattled by more concerns about the economy of top metals consumer China.

The ministry issued the document instructing local housing bureaus of Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Henan, Guangdong and Liaoning provinces to make an "in-depth" study of the pre-sale system, and set out reasons why it should be retained or scrapped. "If it is advised to be scrapped, supervision measures should be studied accordingly at the same time," the document said.

The construction sector is one of the top sources of demand for industrial metals such as copper. The base metal is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures climbed to their highest in more than a month on Tuesday in a turnaround from recent declines that were driven by concerns about the U.S.-China trade dispute hurting American exports. Chicago Board of Trade most active soybeans gained 4-3/4 cents to $8.45-3/4 a bushel. The contract traded up to $8.58, its highest price since August.

China is starting to buy more Argentine soybeans because of Beijing's trade battle with the United States, and Argentina will in turn purchase more U.S. soybeans to meet its own needs. In the near term, soy prices will remain low, awaiting more clues on the trade war. The trading volume of CBOT soybeans, soymeal and soyoil was expected at 251,404 lots, 151,809 lots and 162,317 lots.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Cheng Yu