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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-August 25, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in July to an 11-month low as a chronic shortage of properties boosted prices, the latest sign that the housing market recovery was slowing. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million units last month. That was the lowest level since August 2016. The cooling in housing activity reflects supply constraints rather than ebbing demand, which is being driven by a strong labor market. In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended Aug. 19. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a robust labor market, for 129 consecutive weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller.

2. Mexico and Canada on Wednesday dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's latest threat to scrap NAFTA, describing it as a negotiating tactic. Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray sought to brush off Trump's threat, saying the comments would not scare Mexico in the negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, speaking to reporters, said his officials would "stay focused on the hard work we have ahead of us at the negotiating table ... I don't see anything changing in that." President Donald Trump's threat to shut down the U.S. government to secure funding for a wall along the Mexican border rattled markets on Wednesday and cast a shadow over efforts in Congress to raise the country's debt ceiling and pass spending bills.

3. The UK economy increased 0.3 percent sequentially in the second quarter, unrevised from the preliminary estimate, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed Thursday. Household spending grew only 0.1 percent, the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2014. Business investment was broadly unchanged in the second quarter, the weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 2016. Net mortgage lending increased to 1.159 billion pound in July, the lowest since April 2016, according to UK Finance figures. British banks approved 41,587 mortgages for house purchases last month, up 9 percent year-on-year to the highest since February.

4. A joint OPEC, non-OPEC monitoring ministerial committee, known as JMMC, said on Thursday it was confident the oil market was moving in the right direction but that all options, including an extension to the supply-cut pact beyond March, were open to ensure market stability.

5. New Zealand posted a July monthly trade surplus for the first time in five years, as a recovery in dairy export prices helped boost exports, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday. July's trade surplus of NZ$85 million was a far cry from July 2016's NZ$351 million deficit, which was in part due to the importation of a large aircraft. Exports jumped 17 percent in July versus a year ago, led by higher prices across commodities, particularly milk powder, butter and cheese.

Domestic News
6. China will further the SOE reform, and hear the report on the enforcement of equity and option right encouragement, Premier Li Keqiang said at a State Council executive meeting. China will also further reduce leverage at central State-owned enterprises and push forward the debt-for-equity swaps to cut local government debt, in addition to developing new industry and new mode, and improving conventional momentum by implementing “Made in China 2025” and “Internet+” initiatives.

7. China will continue to tighten review of the authenticity of overseas investment and its compliance with regulations, hoping to guide more investment into the real economy and to cap fraud and irrational investment, said Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng. "We will further improve the overseas investment reporting management system," said Gao, adding China would push forward legislation to govern foreign investment.

8. China's State-owned enterprises saw a 23.1 percent increase in profits year-on-year to 16.6102 trillion yuan from January to July, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Thursday, noting that profits were 6.6 percentage points higher than that of revenues.

9. China will pay equal attention to trade facilitation and risk prevention in terms of foreign exchange to ensure cross-border capital flow in an orderly way, according to Guo Song, director of current account management department, State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). He said China shall follow consistent policy and management principle on overseas direct investment as its healthy development needs comprehensive regulation, favorable environment and positive guidance.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar edged higher on Thursday after another politically-driven slide against the euro and yen the previous session, as investors shifted focus away from government tension in Washington to an upcoming global central bankers' gathering. But the dollar's respite was expected to be temporary as investors awaited key speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Summit in Wyoming. In late trading, the dollar rose 0.4 percent to 109.49 yen and 0.1 percent to 93.272 against a major currency basket. The dollar was flat versus the euro at $1.1801.

2. Home Market
China's yuan pared early gains and closed in the negative territory on Thursday, with the midpoints hitting an over 11-month high. The direction of the dollar in global market and forex settlement at home will decide yuan's movement in coming sessions.

Precious Metals
Gold prices drifted lower on Thursday, pressured by a firmer dollar as investors awaited cues on further interest rate hikes from central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole this week. Losses were limited, however, after a threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to shut down the government unless he got funding for a border wall with Mexico. Geopolitical risk tends to drive buying of safe-haven investments like bullion. Spot gold was down 0.27 percent at $1,286.2 per ounce, giving back some of the previous session's gains. The most-active U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $2.70 at $1,292 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
U.S. crude prices fell 2 percent on Thursday as Hurricane Harvey, forecast to come ashore as the strongest storm to hit the U.S. mainland in 12 years, threatened oil operations along the energy hub on the U.S. Gulf Coast. U.S. crude futures settled 98 cents lower at $47.43 a barrel and Brent crude ended down 53 cents a barrel, or 1 percent, at $52.04.

2.Base Metals
Copper rose to a near three-year high on Thursday on signs of stronger demand in top consumer China while inventories fell in London warehouses. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed 1.9 percent higher at $6,688 per tonne, having earlier touched $6,731.50, its highest since November 2014. China aluminium futures rose to their highest in more than five years on Thursday while prices in London rose 0.4 percent to $2,106.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Thursday as investors waited on central bank speeches in Jackson Hole for fresh indications on monetary policy, while some Treasury bills weakened on concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 6/32 in price to yield 2.19 percent, up from 2.17 percent on Tuesday. Yields on Treasury bills due on Oct. 5 rose as high as 1.175 percent and bills due on Oct. 12 touched 1.206 percent, both the highest since Aug. 10.

2. Chinese bonds
Yields of China's inter-bank cash bonds edged higher in the morning session with the T-bond futures slightly lowered. Liquidity remained tightened due to suspension of open market operations by the central bank. Cash bond prices continued on higher commodities. High pricing of new debts issued by the Export-Import Bank of China triggered sell-off by some institutions.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks dipped on Thursday as political uncertainty in Washington kept investors cautious ahead of comments on monetary policy from central bankers gathered for their annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 28.69 points, or 0.13 percent, to 21,783.4, the S&P 500 lost 5.07 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,438.97 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.08 points, or 0.11 percent, to 6,271.33.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks followed Asian markets higher and rose for the third session in a row on Thursday, underpinned by robust gains in financial and property stocks. The market resumed trading after a one-day closure for a strong typhoon. The Hang Seng index rose 0.4 percent, to 27,518.60, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.9 percent, to 11,051.00 points.

3. China Equities
The Shanghai Composite Index settled down in lower trading volume on Thursday, led by the medium and small caps. Losses were across the board. Correction is expected in coming sessions as the index failed to cross over in multiple attempts.


(2017-08-25)
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