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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-June 7, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. U.S. job openings increased 259,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.0 million in April, the highest since the government started tracking the series in 2000. The monthly increase was the largest in just over a year and pushed the jobs openings rate to 4.0 percent, the highest since last July. Hiring, however, decreased by 253,000 jobs to 5.1 million. That lowered the hiring rate to a one-year low of 3.5 percent.

2.U.S. President Donald Trump took sides in a deep rift in the Arab world on Tuesday, praising Middle East countries' actions against American ally Qatar over Islamist militants even though the tiny Gulf state hosts the largest U.S. air base in the region. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on Tuesday that Qatar needed to take several steps, including ending its support of Palestinian militant group Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, to restore ties with other key Arab states. Qatar’s foreign Minister Sheikh told CNN, "We are willing to sit and talk." Jordan joined the pressure on Qatar, downgrading its diplomatic representation and revoking the license of Doha-based TV channel Al Jazeera.

3. The US Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production in 2017 and 2018 to rise by more than previously expected, it said on Tuesday. The agency forecast that 2017 crude oil output will rise to 9.33 million barrels per day this year from 8.87 million bpd in 2016, a 460,000 bpd increase. For 2018, it forecast that production will grow by 680,000 bpd to 10.01 million bpd compared with a 650,000 bpd gain previously, the EIA said in its monthly short-term energy outlook. Meanwhile, the agency forecast that US oil demand for 2017 is set to grow by 320,000 bpd compared with a 290,000 bpd growth previously.

4. Japan's real wages were flat in April from the same period a year earlier, with rising prices offsetting gains in nominal pay and possibly hurting households' purchasing power. Real wages, which are adjusted for moves in consumer prices, were flat in April from a year earlier. It followed a revised 0.3 percent annual fall in March. Wage earners' nominal cash earnings rose an annual 0.5 percent in April, the biggest rise in four months. Revised data showed that nominal wages were flat from a year earlier in March. But household consumption fell more than expected in April, separate data showed, signalling consumer spending continues to lag behind improvement in other areas of the economy.

5. Australia's central bank held interest rates for a 10th month on Tuesday, taking an optimistic tone on the economy even while acknowledging that growth likely slowed last quarter by more than it expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a record low 1.50 percent in a widely expected move. That expression of confidence was enough to lift the Australian dollar closer to a 10-day high of $0.7500. The futures market implies only a one-in-five chance of a cut in cash rates by year end.

Domestic News
6. China’s Ministry of Finance unleashed a series of measures on local government financing, sustaining previous policy by highlighting problem guidance, Xinhua News Agency said. The move showed that Chinese government is trying to create a full chain on local government debt management, the media said.

7. Tu Guangshao, vice chairman and president of China Investment Corporation (CIC), the sovereign wealth fund, plans to make more direct investments as he sees greater trade and investment potential in “One Belt and One Road” construction.

8. The insurance regulator CIRC has ordered all insurance companies to carry out a self audit of their solvency data, and to leave no stone unturned to ensure the veracity of their data. The move to authenticate solvency data is part of the CIRC's current drive to restore order in the insurance market and avoid risk. CIRC said that it plans to clamp down on false data in the insurance industry, focusing on insurers found to have been late in submitting solvency reports or to have irregularities in their reports.

9. David Rank, Chargéd'affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, has left the State Department over the Trump administration's decision to quit the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change, a senior U.S. official said. A State Department spokeswoman confirmed Rank's departure, but said she was unable to verify Twitter posts that said he resigned as he felt unable to deliver a formal notification to China of the U.S. decision last week to quit the agreement. Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, President Donald Trump's pick as the next U.S. ambassador to Beijing, is expected to take up the post later this month.

10. Russia put off its plans to borrow in yuan the last minute as it did not meet a condition laid down by Beijing - to borrow by issuing Panda bonds on China's domestic market, Russia's deputy finance minister said. "We have no plans yet to sell Russian bonds in the form of Panda bonds, that is where all the problems come from," Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak told Reuters in an interview.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar weakened to a more than six-week low against the yen on Tuesday, dipping below a key technical level as Treasury debt yields slipped on increased caution ahead of a trio of potentially market moving events on Thursday. The dollar was down 0.92 percent against the yen at 109.43 yen. The euro was up 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.1275. Sterling was down 0.05 percent against the greenback after falling to as low as $1.2873 earlier in the session. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major rivals, was down 0.24 percent at 96.567.

2. Home Market
China's yuan firmed against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the official midpoint rose 1 bp. A softer dollar index is expected to push up forex prices as liquidity tightness eased, but the upward momentum is fading, traders said. It is widely believed by institutional investors that the round of rally would take a breathe.

Precious Metals
Gold rose to the highest in seven months on Tuesday on a slump in the dollar to a seven-month low and safe-haven demand driven by a rift in the Middle East, an upcoming European Central Bank meeting and the British election. Investors were also drawn to gold by uncertainty around the testimony to a Senate committee by former FBI Director James Comey. Spot gold was up over 1 percent at $1,293.50 an ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,295.97. U.S. gold futures rose 1.2 percent to settle at $1,297.50.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, finding technical support after sliding below $47 a barrel on pressure from a diplomatic rift in the Middle East and sustained high crude inventories in the United States. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 79 cents at $48.19. Benchmark Brent crude oil rose 65 cents a barrel to $50.12.

2.Base Metals
Aluminium prices hit a three-week trough on Tuesday as traders brushed aside news that Qatar's exports of the metal had been blocked and focused instead on weak Chinese demand and rising geopolitical tensions. London Metal Exchange aluminium ended flat at $1,903 a tonne, having earlier hit its lowest in three weeks at $1,887. Copper ended down 0.2 percent at $5,616 a tonne. Zinc closed down 1 percent at $2,461 a tonne. Tin closed down 2.3 percent at $19,675, having earlier hit its lowest since late April.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. long-dated Treasury yields fell to seven-month lows on Tuesday, as nervous investors favored the safety of bonds ahead of Thursday's general election in Britain, the European Central Bank's policy meeting, and former FBI Director James Comey's testimony before a Senate panel. Safe-haven bids pushed U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 2.129 percent, the lowest since Nov. 10, two days after Trump's surprise election victory. Yields were last at 2.143 percent. U.S. 30-year bonds rose 22/32 in price, yielding 2.807 percent. U.S. two-year yields, meanwhile, were at 1.294 percent, from 1.306 percent late on Monday.

2. Chinese bonds
China’s debt market weakened on Tuesday, shrugging off the central bank's 500 billion yuan of medium-term lending facility (MLF) injection into the financial system. Government debt futures rose shortly after the MLF injection, but turned lower later on, weighing on the yields of interbank cash bonds. Investors kept cashing in profits at highs despite of the central bank’s clear move to restore liquidity.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Major U.S. stock indexes ended near session lows on Tuesday as traders shied away from risky assets ahead of major political and economic headlines expected on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47.81 points, or 0.23 percent, to 21,136.23, the S&P 500 lost 6.77 points, or 0.28 percent, to 2,429.33 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 20.63 points, or 0.33 percent, to 6,275.06.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index powered ahead on Tuesday, touching the 26,000 point-mark, and closed at a fresh 23-month high, aided by continued strength in property shares. The Hang Seng index rose 0.5 percent, to end at 25,997.14 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.1 percent, to 10,606.26 points.

3. China Equities
China’s stocks closed slightly higher on Tuesday with trading volume hitting a four-month low. Yesterday’s leader small caps eased, adding to the caution due to lack of hot themes and uncertainties in the market. Major indexes remained in a tight range before seeing a minor rebound late in the session. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 10.47 points or 0.34 percent at 3,102.13. The trading volume shrank to 127.7 billion yuan from 143.3 billion yuan, only an arm’s strength from 107.8 billion yuan hit on February 3. The CSI 300 ended at 3,492.88, up 0.7 percent. The benchmark CSI June futures settled 0.64 percent higher at 3,484.6.


(2017-06-07)
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