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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-June 9, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. The European Central Bank closed the door on more interest rate cuts on Thursday, judging the euro zone economy to be rebounding, but said inflation looks to remain weak for years so it still needs to pump out the cash. Acknowledging improved prospects, the ECB dropped a pledge to cut rates if necessary and gave up a long-standing reference to risks to the economy, declaring the outlook "balanced". Yet rate setters did not even discuss winding down the ECB's 2.3 trillion euro asset purchase scheme, kept rates below zero, and pledged very substantial accommodation. "We consider that risks to the growth outlook are now broadly balanced," ECB President Mario Draghi told said. The euro hit a one-week low of $1.11995, down around 0.4 percent on the day, as Draghi spoke.

2. Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservatives will fail to win a parliamentary majority in Britain's election, according to an exit poll, a shock result that would plunge the country into political turmoil and could delay Brexit talks. The exit poll predicted the Conservatives would win 314 seats in the 650-member parliament, short of a majority, and the opposition Labour Party 266, meaning no clear winner and a "hung parliament." Most of the British media and political establishment had predicted an easy win for May.

3. Former FBI Director James Comey accused President Donald Trump on Thursday of firing him to try to undermine the agency's investigation of possible collusion by Trump's campaign with Russia's alleged efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election. In the most eagerly anticipated U.S. congressional hearing in years, Comey told lawmakers the Trump administration had lied and defamed him and the Federal Bureau of Investigation after the president dismissed him on May 9. During more than two hours of testimony, Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee he believed Trump had directed him in February to drop an FBI probe into the Republican president's former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, as part of the broader Russia investigation. Comey would not say whether he thought the president sought to obstruct justice, but added it would be up to special counsel Robert Mueller, who is now investigating the Russia allegations, "to sort that out."

4. Japan's economic growth was much weaker in the first quarter than initially estimated, the Cabinet Office said, but analysts made light of the decline as a "one-off" adjustment in oil inventories that would not thwart recovery. Japan's economy, the world's third largest, expanded at an annualised rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter, less than half the initial estimate of 2.2 percent growth and 2.4 percent gain seen by economists, Cabinet Office data showed on Thursday.

5. Australia's trade surplus collapsed in April as damage wreaked by a massive cyclone in Queensland almost halved exports of coal, underlining the risk of another round of disappointing economic growth. Thursday's figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the trade surplus shrank 82 percent to just A$555 million. That was the lowest in six months and far under forecasts of A$1.9 billion. The blow comes just a day after data showed the economy grew at the slowest annual pace since 2009 in the March quarter, again due in large part to the vagaries of the weather.

Domestic News
6. China reported stronger-than-anticipated exports and imports denominated in the dollar for May, supported by improved external demand and solid domestic demand. Commodity import prices, including iron ore, crude, natural gas, surged with trading volume expanding. But the figure will lose momentum gradually over the course of the year due to the high base and prices. Foreign trade, as one of the three key drivers of Chinese economy, is holding up better than expected.

7. The State Council, China's Cabinet, on Wednesday announced new cuts to charges on companies, which will reduce their burden by 283 billion yuan each year. The new measures, which will take effect July 1, are part of the government's efforts to reduce corporate costs and suspend supervision fees for the insurance and banking sectors, according to a statement following a State Council executive meeting.

8. China's foreign exchange reserves rose in May for a fourth consecutive month, driven by appreciation in non-dollar currencies and higher value in bond yields. The reserve rose $24 billion, the largest monthly increase since April 2014, and will steady on improved cross-border capital liquidity.

9. Data from the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) showed that prices of vegetables, eggs and pork had been declining this year, affected ample supply. Port and vegetable prices will continue to fall, while egg prices are expected to steady in the second half of this year.

10. China's central bank said its national payment system runs smoothly in the first quarter as social fund trade keeping expanding and payment business increasing. In total, 33.371 billion non-cash payments were completed in the first three month of this year, involving 928.63 trillion yuan, up 24.53 percent and 4.54 percent respectively.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The greenback clung to slim gains against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investors took stock of former FBI Director James Comey's testimony to the U.S. Senate, while the euro weakened after the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.25 percent at 96.99, little changed from before the testimony. Against the yen, the greenback was up 0.18 percent to 109.99 yen, after rising to a two-day high of 110.38 yen. The euro was down 0.38 percent to $1.1212. Sterling traded down 0.13 percent at $1.2942.

2. Home Market
China's yuan fell against the U.S. Dollar, along with a lower midpoint rates that bounced off a seven-month high after a six-day gain, on Thursday. Investors were cautions ahead of the super Thursday, traders said. Big banks provided liquidity in the dollar on large demand for forex. Forex prices are expected to steady in the near term.

Precious Metals
Gold prices extended losses into a second session on Thursday as the dollar strengthened and as investors viewed the testimony from former U.S. FBI director James Comey as containing no significant surprises. Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $1,278.5 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery shed 1.1 percent to settle at $1,279.50.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices fell again on Thursday, with a sell-off continuing the day after data showed a surprise surge in U.S. crude inventories, and Brent settled at its lowest since Nov. 29, the eve of an OPEC production cut deal. Brent crude fell 20 cents to settle at $47.87 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures settled down 8 cents to $45.64 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
Copper posted its biggest one-day rise since early April on Thursday as better than expected Chinese economic data allayed some concerns about oversupply, prompting a bigger bounce off this week's near three-week low. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1.9 percent at $5,729 a tonne, its biggest one-day rise since April 5. LME tin closed down 0.7 percent at $19,180 a tonne. Zinc ended up 0.8 percent at $2,466 a tonne and lead finished 1.4 percent higher at $2,091 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday as investors looked past the testimony of former Federal Bureau of Investigation chief James Comey, who made no new revelation about the agency's Russian probe, to focus on the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate hike next week. In late trading, U.S. 10-year notes were last down 4/32 in price, with yields at 2.193 percent, compared with 2.180 percent late on Wednesday. U.S. 30-year bonds fell 10/32 in price, yielding 2.852 percent, compared with Wednesday's 2.837 percent.

2. Chinese bonds
China's debt market firmed on Thursday with the inter-bank cash bonds dropping slightly. But the 5-year government debt sagged, restoring the inverted yield difference with 3-year government debt. The upward potentials of 10-year government debt futures are also stronger than 5-year debt futures.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The 'Trump trade' made a comeback on Thursday on Wall Street but the S&P and Dow industrials ended flat as former FBI director James Comey said President Donald Trump fired him to undermine an investigation into Russian meddling into last November's U.S. Election. The Nasdaq Composite posted a record closing high boosted by gains in Nvidia and Yahoo. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.84 points, or 0.04 percent, to end at 21,182.53, the S&P 500 gained 0.65 point, or 0.03 percent, to 2,433.79 and the Nasdaq Composite added 24.38 points, or 0.39 percent, to 6,321.76.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index climbed to another 23-month closing high on Thursday, as China's solid May trade data somewhat offset investor caution ahead of a slew of key global events. The Hang Seng index rose 0.3 percent, to 26,063.06, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.4 percent, to 10,649.90 points.

3. China Equities
China's stocks rose to a 1-1/2 year high, extending its winning streak to the third day. Gains expanded late in the session after swinging in a wide range. Low-value blue chips led the market, with China Ping'an hitting highs. The market are expected to move further up in the near term. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 10.01 points or 0.32 percent at 3,150.33. The trading volume fell to 178.8 billion yuan from 194.1 billion yuan. The CSI 300 ended at 3,560.98, up 0.77 percent. The benchmark CSI June futures settled 0.87 percent higher at 3,559.8.


(2017-06-09)
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