Home > News Updates > Financial News > ICBC Daily Comment
ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-October 26, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in September and shipments rose for an eighth straight month, pointing to robust business spending that should help to mitigate the impact on the economy from the hurricanes. Other data on Wednesday showed new single-family home sales vaulting to a near 10-year high last month. The signs of strong business investment on equipment in the third quarter and a pick-up in the housing market supported views the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December. After the data, prices for U.S. Treasuries fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rising to a seven-month high. U.S. stocks were trading slightly lower. A second report showed new home sales surged 18.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units, a ten-year high. Overall orders for durable goods shot up 2.2 percent last month, beating economists' forecast.

2.The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, saying that while less stimulus will be required over time the bank will be cautious as it considers future moves given the risks and uncertainties facing the economy. In a dovish statement that emphasized “substantial uncertainty” about the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the central bank said the economy is operating close to its potential but slack remains in the labor market. The Bank of Canada also cut its third-quarter economic growth forecast to 1.8 percent from 2.0 percent, while revised up its forecast for the whole year to 3.1 percent from 2.8 percent. The next year's growth forecast was also lifted up to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent. The cautious tone sent the Canadian dollar tumbling lower, and bets on a December rate increase slipped to less than 30 percent from 37 percent before the rate announcement.

3. South Korea's economy grew at its fastest pace in more than seven years last quarter as robust exports offset weakness in consumption. Gross domestic product rose 1.4 percent in the third quarter, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday, while growth for the year to September accelerated to 3.6 percent from 2.7 percent in the second quarter. Exports grew 6.1 percent in the third quarter, while investment in equipment added 0.5 percent. Following the GDP data release, a finance ministry official said he now sees this year's growth at around 3.1 percent or 3.2 percent, above the ministry's official forecast of 3 percent released in July.

4. Brazil's central bank reduced the pace of monetary easing on Wednesday, but signaled it will probably cut rates to a record low next month to help an incipient economic recovery. The bank's nine-member monetary policy committee, known as Copom, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points to 7.50 percent, after four consecutive cuts of 100 basis points. The decision was widely expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Domestic News
5. Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee for the second term at the first plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee. Members of the newly elected Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 19th CPC Central Committee are Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang, Wang Huning, Zhao Leji and Han Zheng.

6. The year of 2018 marks the 40th anniversary of the launch of reform and opening-up. China will make determined efforts to advance the modernization of national governance system and capabilities, comprehensively deepen reform and open still wider to the world, President Xi Jinping said in a press conference.

7. China will launch a nationwide inspection on sale prices of commercial property from Monday, in the latest effort to stabilize the property market. From October 30 to November 30, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Development and Reform Commission will jointly inspect irregularities of real estate developers and agents. Irregularities include fabricating information on housing sales, publishing fake advertisements and artificially inflating housing prices, market manipulation and hoarding unsold homes, according to a notice by the two departments.

8.  U.S. President Donald Trump will seek "tangible" agreements on trade with China when he visits the country next month, but results on key issues such as market access may take longer, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Wednesday. The United States is seeking "immediate" results, like the deals American companies GE and Boeing Co struck in Saudi Arabia in May, as "a sign of good faith," Ross said. But he acknowledged that market access, intellectual property rights and tariffs are more complex and will take a longer time to negotiate. Trump will head to Asia from Nov. 3 to 14 for discussions on issues including trade.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar slipped on Wednesday against a basket of currencies, struggling to post further gains tied to speculation the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve will steer policy in a more hawkish direction. A pullback in U.S. bond yields also stoked some selling in the dollar. Sterling climbed almost 1 percent to an eight-day high of $1.3271. The dollar index tracking the greenback versus six currencies was down 0.1 percent at 93.696, holding below a 2-1/2 week high of 94.017 set on Monday. The dollar climbed to 114.245 yen, its highest since July 11. It was down 0.2 percent at 113.70 yen in late trading. The euro gained 0.4 percent at $1.181.

2. Home Market
China's yuan edged down against the dollar in the morning session on Wednesday, but the losses were limited. Market remained steady with an overall balanced forex settlement and selling, but market volatility will escalate at the end of China's 19th Congress as proprietary institutions were more bullish on the dollar, traders said.

Precious Metals
Gold steadied after touching a 2-1/2 week low on Wednesday on reports that Republican senators favored John Taylor to become the next head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which drove U.S. bond yields to multi-month highs. Spot gold was up at $1,277.01 an ounce, after hitting $1,271.11, the lowest since Oct. 6. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up 70 cents, or 0.05 percent, at $1,279 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
U.S. oil prices slipped on Wednesday after a surprising increase in U.S. crude inventories, while U.S. gasoline futures rallied 1 percent on a sharp falloff in inventories. Brent crude edged up after top exporter Saudi Arabia reiterated its determination to end a three-year supply glut. Brent crude futures settled up 11 cents at $58.44 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 29 cents to $52.18.

2.Base Metals
Copper steadied on Wednesday after two days of gains as stock markets slid after a series of record highs, pointing to a more cautious mood among investors. But a retreat in the dollar lifted the broader metals complex. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.1 percent at $7,010 a tonne. LME nickel finished down 1.1 percent at $11,865 a tonne, while aluminium closed 1.4 percent higher at $2,186 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday, boosted by strong U.S. durable goods and new home sales data as well as speculation about President Donald Trump's nominee to head the Federal Reserve. U.S. 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields rose to 2.440 percent. Earlier, 10-year yields rose to 2.475 percent, the highest since March 21. U.S. 30-year bond yields were up at 2.951 percent after climbing to a five-month high of 2.980 percent. U.S. two-year note yields, meanwhile, were at 1.602 percent. Two-year yields earlier hit a fresh nine-year peak of 1.623 percent.

2. Chinese bonds
The growth of China's cash bonds and future bonds picked up in the afternoon session on Wednesday, with the active 10-year Treasury bonds rising around 6 bps to the highest since December 2014 at 3.78 percent. The CFFEX's benchmark 10-year Treasury futures extended losses by over 0.5 percent on rising concerns over liquidity expectations and supervision.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 indexes suffering their worst day in seven weeks, on a batch of soft quarterly earnings and a rise in bond yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 112.3 points, or 0.48 percent, to end at 23,329.46, the S&P 500 lost 11.98 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,557.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 34.54 points, or 0.52 percent, to 6,563.89.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks rose on Wednesday, underpinned by strong gains by listings in the city of mainland-based companies, as China's ruling Communist Party revealed its new leadership line-up. The Hang Seng index rose 0.5 percent to 28,302.89 points. China Enterprises Index, an index tracking major domestic firms listed in Hong Kong, gained 0.8 percent, to 11,493.30 points. Most Hong Kong sectors gained ground.

3. China Equities
China's stocks rose to an almost 22-month high on Wednesday, extending gains to the fourth consecutive day, lifted by environmental protection, Shanghai FTZ names, but turnover failed to expand, traders said. Capitals were relocated due to new policy changes after the 19th National Congress, possibly bringing structural changes in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3,396.90, up 8.65 points or 0.26 percent, approaching previous highs at 3,539.18 hit on December 31 2015. The trading volume shrank to 159.8 billion yuan from 178.4 billion yuan. The CSI 300 closed up 0.44 percent to 3,976.95.


(2017-10-26)
Close