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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-September 29, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. The White House struggled on Thursday to defend its new tax plan against criticism that it would help the rich at the expense of lower classes, as Republicans in Congress prepared to move ahead with actual legislation. A day after President Donald Trump unveiled the plan and called it "a miracle for the middle class," White House economic adviser Gary Cohn said he could not guarantee that all middle-class Americans would see their tax bills decline. Cohn said that taxes may not decline for some, but insisted that the middle class would benefit. The Trump plan's tax cuts for businesses and individuals would reduce federal revenues by more than $5 trillion over a decade, according to independent analysts.

2. The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, recording its quickest pace in more than two years, but the momentum probably slowed in the third quarter as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma temporarily curbed activity. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate on Thursday. The upward revision from the 3.0 percent pace of growth reported last month reflected an increase in inventory investment.

3. The European Central Bank should slow the pace of its asset purchases while also keeping monetary policy accommodative overall, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday. Villeroy said there was no doubt that the current economic and job market recovery would lead to higher inflation although questions linger about how long that will take. Villeroy said the ECB had to be "pragmatic" about reducing asset purchases and keep open the possibility of additional purchases should it prove necessary. He added that in any case the ECB should not consider an increase in interest rates until it sees a lasting increase in inflation.

4. The cheerful mood among German shoppers clouded unexpectedly heading into October, a survey showed on Thursday, suggesting that a consumer-led upswing in Europe's biggest economy could lose some steam in coming months. The Nuremberg-based GfK institute said its consumer sentiment indicator edged down to 10.8 points going into October from 10.9 in the previous month, the highest reading in nearly 16 years. GfK researcher Rolf Buerkl said the main reason for the softening of consumer sentiment was a less upbeat assessment on income expectations. Consumer sentiment could deteriorate further in coming months due to possibly complicated coalition talks following Sunday's federal election.

5. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday called a snap election as the main opposition Democratic Party threw its support behind a fledgling party led by Tokyo's popular governor, Yuriko Koike, in the Oct. 22 vote. Abe hopes a boost in voter support in recent months will help his Liberal Democratic Party-led (LDP) coalition maintain a simple majority. Koike's new Party of Hope, formally launched on Wednesday, has upended the outlook for the election after the former LDP member announced she would lead it herself. Democratic Party executives said they would throw their "full support" behind Koike's group, not run any candidates of their own and allow their members to run under the Party of Hope banner.

6. Job vacancies in Australia surged to their highest on record in the August quarter, auguring well for continued strong growth in hiring. Total job vacancies jumped 6 percent to 203,700 seasonally adjusted in the June-August quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. That was the first time vacancies topped 200,000 since the series began in 1979. Vacancies were also a hefty 15.4 percent higher than in the same period of 2016. Analysts value the vacancies series as it has proved a reliable leading indicator of labour demand and turning points in employment growth.

7. Governor Mark Carney said on Thursday the Bank of England could not be expected to nullify the likely hit to the economy from Brexit, although it could influence how that hit is spread across Britain. Hosting an event celebrating the 20th anniversary of the BoE's independence from government, Carney said Britain's economic prosperity would hinge on the final arrangements for its divorce with the European Union, as well as the government's fiscal policies.

Domestic News
8. China on Thursday said North Korean firms or joint ventures in the country will be shut within the 120 days of the latest United Nations Security Council sanctions passed on September 12. In a statement, the commerce ministry said that Overseas Chinese joint ventures with North Korean entities or individuals will also be closed. The ministry, however, did not give a timeframe. However, non-profit and non-commercial infrastructure projects approved by the Security Council are exempt.

9. China's direct foreign investment slowed down in the first half of this year, but the structure and quality of investment is further improved, the country's foreign exchange regulator said Thursday. Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed improvement in the economic structure, stable cross-border capital flow and controllable risks in the balance of payments, SAFE said in a report. Meanwhile, the SAFE report said it needs to keep a close eye on the influence on emerging economies of the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to start unwinding its balance sheet. However, it said the Fed's pace of normalizing its monetary policy has been relatively steady, noting that economic fundamentals remain the key to guard against risks.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as investors looked to take profits on the greenback's rally this week ahead of the end of the quarter. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.23 percent at 93.143. The index was coming off its strongest three-day performance in nine months and is still up about 1 percent this week. Sterling was up 0.39 percent to $1.3436. The Canadian dollar gained on its U.S. counterpart, after earlier touching a four-week low, helped by steadier oil prices.

2. Home Market
China's yuan fell to an over one-month low against the dollar during one point in the morning session, while the official yuan midpoint hit a one-month low. A firmer dollar attributed to recent correction in yuan. Despite of the minor intervention of the official guidance, yuan's prices were mostly determined by market factors, including mounting demand for forex.

Precious Metals
Gold rebounded above a six-week low on Thursday, as the dollar turned lower and ushered in short-covering. Bullion was earlier pressured on proposed U.S. tax reforms and strong economic data that supported the case for another U.S. interest rate hike this year. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $1,286.91 per ounce, after hitting $1,277.26, its lowest since Aug. 16. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $0.90, or 0.07 percent, at $1,288.70 per ounce, after touching a five-week low of $1,280.40.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices slipped on Thursday, further backing off from 2015 peaks hit earlier in the week as tension around northern Iraq following the Kurdistan region's vote in favor of independence spurred fresh supply concerns. U.S. crude settled down 58 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $51.56 a barrel after reaching a five-month intraday high of $52.86. Brent ended down 49 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $57.41 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
Copper and zinc rose on Thursday as speculators regarded prices as good value after recent losses and sentiment was lifted by hopes of steady economic growth in top metals consumer China. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1.3 percent at $6,522 a tonne. Copper has given up about 7 percent since touching a peak of $6,970 on Sept. 5 as longs liquidated their positions. LME benchmark zinc ended 1.4 percent higher at $3,147, boosted by low inventory levels and the presence of a large position. LME three-month nickel climbed 2 percent to finish at $10,440.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
The yield spread between shorter and longer-dated U.S. Treasuries grew on Thursday, a day after President Donald Trump's proposed tax overhaul raised concerns about faster growth in the federal deficit and borrowing. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was 2.309 percent, unchanged from Wednesday. It reached 2.359 percent earlier on Thursday, the highest since July 13, and traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 1, Reuters data showed. The two-year yield ended at 1.455 percent, down 2.7 basis points after hitting 1.499 percent earlier on Thursday, which was the highest since November 2008. The spread between two-year and 10-year yields widened to as much as 87 basis points, which was last seen in Aug. 23, before finishing at 85 basis points.

2. Chinese bonds
China's cash bonds yields were traded in a choppy trading in the morning session on Wednesday, while T-bond futures ended slightly higher. The hint of RRR cut by the State Council boosted market morale. But gains will be limited at the end of the quarter and ahead of the National Day holiday, as the move does not signal the turning point of monetary policy, and due to its uncertainty.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street edged higher on Thursday, as the S&P 500 eked out a record on gains in McDonald's and healthcare names, while investors continued to hope President Donald Trump will be able to make progress on tax reform. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40.49 points, or 0.18 percent, to 22,381.2, the S&P 500 gained 3.02 points, or 0.12 percent, to 2,510.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19 points, to 6,453.45.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday, echoing weakness in other Asian markets, as investors worried about a possible slowdown in China await third-quarter economic data. The Hang Seng index ended down 0.8 percent at 27,421.60 point, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.5 percent to 10,874.52.

3. China Equities
China's stocks settled down slightly to an over one-month low in a choppy trade on Thursday, dented by cyclical sector and big finance and property names. But food and beverage sector bucked the trend in anticipation of rising consumption during the National Day holiday. Major indexes, still in the downward path, are expected to consolidate in a tight range. The Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3,339.64, down 5.63 points or 0.17 percent, drawing near to the low of 3,331.52 touched on August 25. The trading volume of Shanghai A shares rose to 181.7 billion yuan from 168.7 billion yuan. The CSI Index closed up 0.04 percent to 3,822.54.


(2017-09-29)
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