I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices fell by half a percent on Monday, retreating from last week's two-month highs, as dollar strength and the easing of tensions between the United States and North Korea pushed prices lower.
Though North Korea's Liberation Day celebration on Tuesday could raise the temperature again, markets were relieved that the weekend passed without more inflammatory rhetoric. Meanwhile, the dollar broadly rose from last week's four-month lows against the yen and traded up against a basket of currencies. A lot of the negative news is priced into the dollar. That, combined with no real escalation in North Korea, should lead to lower gold prices. Some institutional investors expected that gold could hardly breach the resistance of $1,300, and would stay within the $1,200 to $1,300 range for the year.
New York Fed President William Dudley said on Monday that market expectations that the U.S. central bank would begin trimming its balance sheet were not unreasonable. He expects to raise interest rates once more this year if the economic forecast evolves in line with his expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hide interest rates within this year. The dollar rebounded after his remark.
On technical front, gold fell to around $1,281 from $1,291 on Monday. Since 2017, gold failed to breach above the key mark of $1,300, suggesting ample resistance under this level. Bullion is expected to remain on track the range between $1,200 to $1,300, with support at the 50-day and 100-day moving average. In the near and medium term, gold is expected to remain within the range of $1,250 to $1,300.

Silver
Silver fell 0.1 percent to $17.05 per ounce, having climbed last week to its highest since mid-June. On technical front, silver failed to cross over the heavy resistance of the 100-day and 200-day moving average since June 2017. Pullback is expected in coming sessions. On short-term trading strategy, investors shall follow that of gold and closely watch the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices tumbled more than 2.5 percent on Monday in volatile trade, as dollar strength and weak domestic demand data in China hammered prices that had received a short-lived boost on concerns about potential reductions in crude supply from Libya. Global benchmark Brent crude futures settled down $1.37 or 2.63 percent at $50.73. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down $1.23, or 2.52 percent at $47.59 a barrel.
Oil prices fell on news that refinery runs in China dropped in July. Analysts said the drop was steeper than expected, exacerbating concerns that a glut of refined fuel products could weaken Chinese demand for oil. U.S. shale output is expected to rise again in September, according to U.S. data issued late in the session. U.S. shale oil production for September which includes a new regional data input, is forecast to rise by 117,000 barrels per day to 6.15 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.
On chart, U.S. crude fell below the 100-day moving average, suggesting a bearish tone with support at the 50-day moving average of $46.45. We maintain our view that U.S. crude prices will remain between $42-52.

Copper
Benchmark copper ended 0.2 percent down at$6,397 a tonne. Prices hit their highest in more than 2-1/2 years on Aug. 9 at $6,515 and are up almost 8 percent this quarter. China's July factory output grew 6.4 percent from a year earlier, while fixed-asset investment expanded by 8.3 percent in the first seven months, both below economists' forecasts. Industrial metals overall were pressured by a stronger U.S. currency, which makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non-U.S. Buyers. Copper is expected to keep at current level as market bulls retreat.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures pared losses on Monday but still closed lower as technical selling and outlooks for favorable crop weather continued to pressure price. USDA said on Monday U.S. soybean crop that was rated good to excellent was little changed compared with the previous week. CBOT November soybean futures settled 6-3/4 cents lower at $9.38-1/4 per bushel.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan