I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold steadied on Thursday, hovering below Tuesday's seven-week high, as investors awaited U.S. jobs data for further clues on the outlook for interest rates. The dollar fell on reduced expectations for a third U.S. rate increase this year. An upbeat payroll report will drive the dollar up as the labor market appears to be in its best shape in many years and despite double-digit U.S. earnings growth in the second quarter. Reduced rate rise expectations on contained inflation tend to weaken the dollar. Weaker-than-expected U.S. services sector data worried investors and stoked doubts that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again in 2017.
Spot gold was 0.15 percent higher at $1,268.15 an ounce, not far from Tuesday's seven-week high of $1,273.97. In early Asian trade, it fell $6.20 within one minute to the session low of $1,258.20, suggesting a bearish tone in the month as market bulls are losing steam. But it is also possible that this was caused by position squaring on strong expectations over the non-farm payroll report.
In general, the non-farm payroll report due tonight will play a key role in gold’s movement this month. We expect a strong report, lifting the dollar and dampening bullion.

Silver
Silver rose 0.6 percent to $16.64 an ounce on Thursday, still lingering around the key support around $16.50. A expected upbeat U.S job report would drag the white metal below the level and trigger a round of decline in the medium term.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell on Thursday with concern about high crude supplies from producer club OPEC offsetting the previous day's data showing record U.S. gasoline demand. Benchmark Brent crude settled down 35 cents a barrel at $52.01 a barrel. U.S. light crude was 56 cents lower at $49.03.
OPEC crude oil exports rose to a record high in July, driven largely by soaring exports from the group's African members. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported record gasoline demand of 9.84 million barrels per day (bpd) for last week and a fall in commercial crude inventories of 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels. That was below levels seen this time last year, an indication of a tightening U.S. Market. Yet OPEC output hit a 2017 high of 33 million bpd in July, up 90,000 bpd from the previous month, led by a further recovery in supply from Libya.

Copper
Copper held near two-year highs on Thursday, supported by expectations of stronger demand from top consumer China and a weak dollar. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended unchanged at 6,352 a tonne, close to Monday's two-year high of $6,430 and up 14 percent since early June. Growth in China's services sector slowed in July, a survey showed on Thursday, but data earlier showed manufacturing grew strongly, underpinning demand for metals. New orders for U.S.-made goods saw their biggest increase in eight months, but manufacturing is expected to continue to grow at a moderate pace.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures dipped to a one-month low on Thursday as beneficial rains crossed the Midwest crop belt, bolstering yield prospects for the oilseed crop. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans settled down 17 cents at $9.60-1/2 per bushel after dipping to $9.55-1/2, the contract's lowest level since June 30. December soymeal fell $2.90 at $312.60 a short ton, while December soyoil ended down 0.77 cents at 33.80 cents per lb. Soybean production for this year was projected at 4.196 billion bushels on the basis of unit production of 47.3 bushels per acre. The trading volume for soybean, soymeal and soyoil stood at 235,100, 102,046 and 160,233 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan