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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - December 1, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold extended losses on Thursday, breaching below the support of $1,280. The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, as increases in business investment in inventories and equipment offset a moderation in consumer spending.

The U.S. economy has gathered steam this year and will warrant continued interest rate increases amid a strengthened global recovery, outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congressional leaders on Wednesday in her final scheduled testimony on Capitol Hill. She described an economy where the jobs market remains strong and economic growth has hit three percent for two quarters running, above the Fed's estimate of U.S. potential and likely enough for an expected December rate increase. Concerns over high stock market perceived as risky lifted gold at highs.

On technical front, gold breached below the 100-day moving average of $1,285 with a bearish outlook, and support at around $1,278 and $1,267. Investors shall closely watch the outcome of U.S. tax overhaul in Senate.

Silver

Silver dropped below $16.50 an ounce, its lowest since early October, extending its losses to the fourth consecutive day. In near term, silver crossed below the lower band of previous trading range. Investors shall square their long positions timely, and may try two-way trading in case that gold falls further.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil rose on Thursday after OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to extend output cuts until the end of 2018, while also signalling a possible early exit from the deal if the market overheats. Reduced supply is the main reason behind oil’s strength. Oil prices are expected to see sharp rangebound in coming sessions.

Copper
Three-month London Metal Exchange copper closed at $6,762 a tonne, little changed from the previous day but down 1.2 percent overall in November. Copper ended down on concerns over slowing demand from China and profit-taking by investors, though the metal held steady into the close on Thursday. In near term, copper is expected to fall sharply.

Soybean

CBOT soybeans settled lower on Thursday on pressure from beneficial rains in Argentina's crop belt, and lower soyoil futures. January soybeans fell 6-3/4 cents at $9.85-3/4 a bushel. The trading volume for soybean, soymeal and soyoil is expected to stand at 217,024 lots, 125,467 lots and 154,941 lots respectively.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                         Cheng Yu


(2017-12-01)
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