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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - June 13, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold prices remained locked just below $1,300 an ounce on Tuesday as investors waited for clues on the pace of U.S. interest rate rises following the impending conclusion of a Federal Reserve policymaking meeting.

A Fed statement and press conference expected on Thursday could push gold out of the tight range of about $1,290 to $1,305, in which it has been trapped since mid-May.

Gold is highly sensitive to higher interest rates which can boost bond yields, making non-yielding bullion less attractive to investors, and could strengthen the dollar, increasing the cost of gold for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices have tended to fall ahead of previous rate rises but recover afterwards. Investor shall closely watch the phenomena of “buying on news and sell of facts”.

Silver

Silver continued to consolidate on Tuesday, tracking gold lower. The white metal lost 0.2 percent to$16.86 an ounce after matching Monday's seven-week high of $16.95.

Investors shall watch the movement around the key mark of $17. The volatility in silver points to caution among investors ahead of the impending conclusion of a Federal Reserve policymaking meeting. It is wise to stay on the sidelines and follow the divergence between bullion and silver.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday, with U.S. crude settling higher before falling in post-settlement trading, and Brent slipping as investors prepared for a key meeting of the OPEC producer group next week. Brent crude futures fell 58 cents to settle at $75.88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 26 cents to $66.36.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a surprise build of 833,000 barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles. Analysts had expected a decline of 2.7 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released its monthly report on Tuesday, saying a high degree of uncertainty was hanging over the global oil market.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday as comments from the Iraqi oil minister cast doubt as to whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would decide to boost output at its upcoming meeting.

Investor shall closely watch global supply and demand. Oil prices are expected to fall further if oil producers decided not to comply with the output cut deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries .

Copper

Copper eased for a third day on Tuesday as investors took profits, a big position in inventories eased and a labour settlement in Chile raised prospects for a deal at top mine Escondida.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.5 percent in final open outcry activity at $7,222 a tonne. It also fell during the previous two sessions after hitting a 4-1/2 year high of $7,348 on Thursday.

A 7 percent rally over six sessions leading up to the peak was due to fears of a strike at BHP's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine. But that aspect had been exaggerated. Investors shall look at the demand in forecasting copper prices.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures notched more modest gains Tuesday on bargain-hunting after hitting the lowest since August. Surging crop prices, including nearly 4 percent jump in wheat and over 2 percent rally in corn, also lifted soybean.

The monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report was mixed as the USDA slashed its estimate for U.S inventories, but raise its forecast for production in Brazil. Soybean is expected to rise in the near term.

The trading volume of CBOT soybean, soymeal and soyoil is expected at 300,406 lots, 142,443 lots, and 191,168 lots respectively.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Cheng Yu


(2018-06-13)
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