I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices climbed to $1,256.71 an ounce on Friday, boosted by a weaker dollar, economic and political uncertainty around the world, as well as the limited prospect of further interest rate rises in the United States. After a weak start, bullion closed the week slightly up, recording the first increase in three weeks, driven by recent inflation weakness.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he is increasingly concerned about inflation after two rates hikes this year. He said it may be worthwhile for the Fed to wait until year-end to decide on another rate hike.
U.S. Markit manufacturing and service PMI fell short of market expectations in June, data released yesterday showed. But new U.S. single-family home sales rose in May and the median sales price surged to an all-time high, suggesting the housing market had regained momentum. The relatively soft economic data weighed on the dollar index, lifting gold prices.
U.S. senate steered toward a potential showdown vote on President Trump’s health care bill next week. A widely expected defeat is likely to spur bullion further higher.
On technical front, gold was supported at the 200-day moving average, showing signs of rebound. Crossing above the resistance of $1,262 means further move-up. The daily MACD index also indicate possible rebound in coming sessions. On trading strategy, investors are recommended to buy gold on dips.

Silver
Silver tracked gold, up to $16.713 an ounce. Technically, the K-line showed signs of reversion. On trading strategy, investors are recommended to buy silver on dips.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil futures edged higher on Friday with a lift from a weaker dollar, but finished a fifth straight week lower as OPEC-led production cuts have failed to substantially reduce a global crude glut. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its output rose by 336,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May to 32.14 million bpd. Oil was dragged down despite of a drawdown in U.S. oil stockpiles, as the OPEC delegates downplayed the idea of a new cut, citing the difficulty of getting Iran to cap output.
Though supported around $42.5 and $44.8, the WTI and Brent are still kept at some distance from stabilization. The RSI nearing oversold range suggested possible rebound. But oil prices are expected to remain weak in the near term. On trading strategy, investors with long positions may consider taking profits on highs.

Copper
Copper prices reached their highest since April 7 on Friday as rising Chinese stock markets and strong European manufacturing data prompted investors to bet on higher prices. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1 percent at $5,800 a tonne after earlier touching a 2-1/2 month high of $5,854.50. The metal used in power and construction was on track for its best week since mid-March and closed above the technically important 200-day moving average of $5,773, setting the scene for further gains next week.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures edged 1/2 cent higher to $9.04-1/2 per bushel, while other contracts closed lower, as forecasts called for benign crop weather in the U.S. and corn futures slumped. Front-month soy futures Sc1 regained ground after falling to the lowest since June 30 last year. The USDA will estimate record-large soybean intended acres this year.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Qin Gang