I. Precious Metals Gold Gold rose to the highest in seven months on Tuesday on a slump in the dollar to a seven-month low and safe-haven demand driven by a rift in the Middle East, an upcoming European Central Bank meeting and the British election. Investors were also drawn to gold, seen as a safe place to park assets, by uncertainty around the testimony to a Senate committee by former FBI Director James Comey. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, while lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Weak economic data from the United States has reduced expectations of rapid U.S. interest rate rises this year, but the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates at its June policy meeting next week. Spot gold was up 1.1 percent at $1,294.34 an ounce, having earlier touched its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,295.97. U.S. gold futures rose 1.2 percent to settle at $1,297.50. On physical demand, a decision by major gold consumer India to levy a sales tax on gold at 3 percent rather than the expected 5 percent was supporting bullion prices by spurring demand for physical metal. On technical front, gold extended gains to top the highs since 2017, with key technical indicators supporting an upward trend. The MACD index showed a strong bullish tone, suggesting retaining steam. Resistance can be found at $1,310-1,320 in the near term. But it shall be noted that a sustained rally could trigger pullback in the near term. The support can be met at around $1,265.
Silver Silver rose 0.9 percent to $17.67 an ounce on Tuesday, hitting the peak since April 25. Compared with gold, the white metal still keeps an arm’s strength to the year-to-end high despite of recent gains, suggesting ample potential for further gains.
II. Commodities Crude Oil Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, finding technical support after sliding below $47 a barrel on pressure from a diplomatic rift in the Middle East and sustained high crude inventories in the United States. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up 79 cents at $48.19. It fell in early trade, then bounced off technical support and edged upward. Benchmark Brent crude oil rose 65 cents a barrel to $50.12. The price band that had been providing technical resistance for WTI has shifted to support. Leading Arab powers including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates cut ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing it of supporting Islamist militants and Iran. The costs of Qatari energy and commodity exports are likely to rise as Arab countries tighten restrictions on Qatari-linked vessels, cutting the ships off from the region's main trading ports and refuelling hub.
Copper London Metal Exchange Copper ended down 0.2 percent at $5,616 a tonne, having hit a 2-1/2 week low of $5,553 on worries over Chinese and U.S. growth, and geopolitical risks. The dollar sank to its lowest in more than six weeks against the yen, but the fall failed to lift metals. Aluminum exports from Qatar’s Qatalum, which produces more than 600,000 tonnes of primary aluminum per year, have been blocked as a result of a diplomatic rift between the Gulf country and several Arab states. On a global scale Qatar plays a minor role in the aluminium market, direction is more dictated by China. There are sufficient aluminum supplies in China, inflows into Shanghai warehouses have increased and demand is relatively weak in summer.As a result, aluminum prices hit a three-week trough on Tuesday
Soybean CBOT July soybeans finished up 1-1/2 cents at $9.23-1/2 a bushel, supported by technical buying and fund short-covering after funds expanded big net short positions in soybeans. Dry weather in the northern U.S. Plains provided further support. The USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 83 percent planted as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 79 percent. July soymeal closed up $0.50 to $301.10 per short ton. July soyoil ended up 0.08 cents to 31.39 cents per lb.
Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch Li Nan
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