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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-June 9, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices extended losses into a second session on Thursday as the dollar strengthened after the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold, and as investors viewed the testimony from former U.S. FBI director James Comey as containing no significant surprises.
 Investors still await the outcome of Britain's national election and opinion polls on the eve of the election showed Theresa May's Conservative Party leading between 5 and 12 percentage points over the main opposition Labour Party, suggesting she would increase her majority.
Earlier in the session, the euro declined after the European Central Bank cut its forecasts for inflation and said that policymakers had not discussed scaling back its massive bond-buying programme.
Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $1,277.95 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery shed 1.1 percent to settle at $1,279.50.
Comey told the Senate Intelligence Committee he believed President Donald Trump had directed him to drop a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe into former national security adviser Michael Flynn as part of the broader Russia investigation. However, he did not make any major new revelations about alleged links between Trump or his associates and Russia. Some investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week where a rate hike is widely expected. An interest rate will boost the dollar, and weigh on gold in the near term.
On technical front, gold fell for the second consecutive day, but held above the 20-day moving average of $1,267. The MACD index still showed a strong upward momentum, but a down trend had formed. Investors shall focus on the support of technical indicators. The next support can found at the 50-day moving average of $1,260 if the 20-day moving average is breached.

Silver
Silver tracked gold, down 1 percent to $17.38. The support of the 50-day moving average is tested. Technically, the 200-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, suggesting a down trend in the near term. We maintain our bullish view on silver in the medium and long term.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell again on Thursday, with a sell-off continuing the day after data showed a surprise surge in U.S. crude inventories, and Brent settled at its lowest since Nov. 29, the eve of an OPEC production cut deal. Brent crude fell 20 cents to settle at $47.87 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures settled down 8 cents to $45.64 a barrel.
The market is catching its breath after the inventory report which, as far as the oil market was concerned, stunk. "The market continues to be impatient with the OPEC and non OPEC cuts and is looking for more data world wide that inventories are indeed falling", a trader said.
Oil prices have slipped below $50 a barrel despite a pledge by the world's largest exporters, led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to extend a cut in production of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) into next year. Yet global supplies of crude remain strong, especially in the United States where booming shale production has the country on track to rival Saudi Arabia and Russia in crude output.

Copper
Copper rose on Thursday as better than expected Chinese economic data allayed some concerns about oversupply, prompting a bigger bounce off this week's near three-week low. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1.9 percent at $5,729 a tonne, its biggest one-day rise since April 5.
China reported stronger-than-anticipated exports and imports for May despite falling commodity prices, suggesting the economy is holding up better than expected despite rising lending rates and a cooling property market.
China's unwrought copper arrivals also jumped from a month earlier, making up for a drop in concentrate imports that had been impacted by supply disruptions in Indonesia and Chile. However, the metal remains vulnerable to further losses after pulling back 8 percent from mid-February highs, analysts said, on the prospect of slackening growth in China and tightening U.S. monetary policy.

Soybean
U.S. soybeans extended its winning streak to the fifth consecutive day. CBOT July soybeans ended up 7-1/4 cents at $9.38 a bushel, driven by spillover strength from corn and wheat, and concerns on U.S. weather. A hot weekend is expected in the Midwest and the Plains, a weight on newly-planted crop. July soymeal closed up $1.20 to $306.10 per short ton. July soyoil ended up 0.49 cents to 31.85 cents per lb.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan


(2017-06-09)
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