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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-May 17, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices extended gains for a fourth day on Tuesday as political troubles and weaker-than-expected housing data in the United States dented the dollar while a more upbeat scenario in Europe lifted the euro. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,237.85 an ounce, after rising to $1,239.10, the highest since May 4. The dollar index slipped to the weakest in more than six months after two U.S. officials said President Donald Trump disclosed highly classified information to Russia's foreign minister about a planned Islamic State operation.
Investors regarded Trump's difficulties as another obstacle to planned U.S. tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Also pressuring the dollar, the Commerce Department said housing starts dropped to the lowest level in five months. At the same time, markets were cheered by the outlook for Europe after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and new French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to draw up a roadmap to deepen European Union integration. Gold steadied after the euro rallied.
Investors may become more cautious, however, due to recent global developments including a North Korean missile test and the "ransomware" cyber attack, which could lift gold prices over the next two weeks.

Silver
Silver extended gains for a fourth day on Tuesday. It rose 1.3 percent at $16.81 an ounce after tapping $16.86, the highest since May 3. Technical indicators provided a floor to prices. A golden cross was formed in the MACD, suggesting a bullish trend in the near term. The metal is expected to recover to around $17.2.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Brent crude futures fell 1 percent at $51.13 per barrel on Wednesday after data showed an increase in U.S. crude inventories, stoking concerns that markets remain oversupplied despite efforts by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend output cuts. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 882,000 barrels in the week ending May 12 to 523.4 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.
The fall in prices came just days after Saudi Arabia and Russia said on Monday that they agreed the need for a 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) crude supply cut by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers including Russia to be extended for nine months, until the end of March 2018.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that commercial oil inventories in industrialised countries rose by 24.1 million barrels in the first quarter of the year, a time during which the OPEC-led production cut was already in place. The data showed that the efforts by the OPEC failed to reverse the supply glut as the weight of rising inventories on prices increased gradually.

Copper
Copper closed little changed, down 0.04 percent at $5,611, on Tuesday as China's latest moves to curb shadow banking and risky investment dented the growth outlook in the world's top metals consumer. China's banking regulator tightened disclosure rules on lenders' wealth management products. Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission unveiled plans to publish a flurry of regulations later this year to control financial risks. China's growth took a step back in April after a surprisingly strong start to the year, tapering off from restructuring/reform and risk controls. Commodities are expected to remain rangebound in a tight range due to lack of drivers in new demand growth.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures rose 1.1 percent on Tuesday, posting the largest increase since May 1, supported by strong export demand for U.S. Supplies. The USDA said on Tuesday morning that private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. Soymeal also rose, closing above the 40-day moving average. Soyoil slipped along with oil prices. July soyoil fell 0.01 cent to 33.01 cents per lb. The trading volume of soybean, soymeal and soyoil stood at 139,101 lots, 70,437 lots and 69,206 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan


(2017-05-17)
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