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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - May 28, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold prices dropped slightly on Friday, but still remained above $1,300 per ounce as investors digested news of U.S. President Donald Trump saying a meeting with North Korea's leader could still go ahead.

Spot gold lost 0.1 percent at $1,303.34 per ounce, yet was on track for a weekly gain of 0.9 percent, its biggest since March. Spot gold earlier hit a 10-day high at $1,307.80. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled down 70 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $1,303.70 per ounce. Heading into a long holiday weekend in the United States, trading activity was virtually mute.

On chart, the 5-day moving average is about to form a golden cross with the 10-day moving average. But a sustained rally will be determined by the progress on the U.S.-North Korea summit. Gold will find resistance at the 200-day moving at $1,307 at first.

Silver

Silver lost 0.6 percent at $16.53 per ounce, headed for a weekly gain of 0.4 percent. It earlier hit $16.70, a 1-1/2-week high. It crossed below the 100-day moving average of $16.65 and the 50-day moving average of $16.54 successively, paring most gains. The white metal is most likely to trade between $16.45-$16.71.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices fell more than $2 per barrel on Friday as Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed easing production cuts that have helped push crude prices to their highest since 2014.

Brent crude futures fell $2.35, or 3 percent, to settle at $76.44 a barrel. The global benchmark lost about 2.7 percent this week, its largest weekly drop since early April. The contract hit its highest since late 2014 at $80.50 last week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped $2.83, or 4 percent, to finish at $67.88 a barrel. For the week, WTI tumbled about 4.9 percent, its biggest loss since early February, a sharp course reversal after six weeks of gains.

The premium of Brent to WTI hit $8.60 per barrel in post-settlement trade, its widest in three years. After hitting that $80 level, which is a psychological level, we were seeing a little bit of a pull-back yesterday, and then rhetoric out of Saudi and Russia has only exacerbated the sell-off today.

Copper

Copper finished up 0.1 percent at $6,885 a tonne as traders weighed the impact over the closure of a copper plant in southern India. India's Tamil Nadu state said on Thursday that it was seeking the closure of the Vedanta smelter on environmental grounds after 13 were killed in deadly protests.

Soybean

Soybeans advanced for the fifth time in six sessions on renewed demand from China, the world's biggest soybean importer, following an easing of U.S.-China trade tensions last weekend. renewed Chinese buying of U.S. export shipments.

CBOT July soybeans were up 5-3/4 cents at $10.41-1/2 a bushel. The contract ended the week up 4.1 percent, the strongest weekly gain for the market's most actively traded contract since early July 2017. CBOT July soymeal rose $3 to $380.3 per ton. CBOT July soyoil fell 0.37 cent to 31.34 per pound.

U.S. market will be closed for the Memorial Day.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Huang Han


(2018-05-28)
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