I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold edged lower after U.S. Federal Reserve chair nominee Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee at his confirmation hearing that the Fed was likely to raise interest rates next month. But the white metal remained at high supported by geopolitical tensions after North Korea on Wednesday fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that landed close to Japan, officials said, Pyongyang's first test launch since mid-September.

Trump, who was briefed on the missile while it was in flight, said that North Korea’s latest ICBC was “a situation we will handle”, and it did not change his administration's approach to North Korea, which has included new curbs to hurt trade between China and North Korea. An escalated geopolitical tensions will push gold prices sharply higher.

On technical front, gold remained within previous trading range without making decisive choice on direction. We maintained our view that the near-term resistance can be found at $1,300. Holding above the level would open up an upward path.

Silver

Silver was down 1.1 percent at $16.84 per ounce, dampened by mounting safe-haven sentiment. Technical front, silver was also range-bound, awaiting more guidance on future direction. The MACD index was approaching the axis zero. Investors could keep an eye on the movement around $17.30 before making taking bets. In case of a breakthrough, investors may consider longing silver.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices eased on Tuesday, weighed down by uncertainty over the outcome of an OPEC meeting this week at which an extension to its price-supporting oil output cuts will be discussed. Brent crude oil ended the session down 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $63.61 a barrel. U.S. crude settled 12 cents, or 0.2 percent lower at $57.99, after falling 1.4 percent in the previous session.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is heading for tougher-than-expected policy talks on Thursday. Its leader Saudi Arabia is pushing to extend output cuts by nine months while non-member Russia is hesitating due to worries that the market could overheat. We believe oil retains its steam in the near term.

Copper

Copper kept falling, seeking support from the 50-day moving average. Technical front, prices remained at record highs, within distance from the key mark of $7,000. Investors shall closely watch “M”-shape pattern on chart, as well as the movement around the 50-day moving average. A downward breakthrough can be deemed as a reversal of current upward momentum.

Soybean

Soybeans fell on slightly wetter forecasts for crop areas of Argentina and spillover effect from lower corn. CBOT January soybeans ended down 3 cents at $9.93 a bushel. The USDA on Tuesday released long-term U.S. crop forecasts projecting that U.S. soybean plantings would rise to 91.0 million acres for the 2018-19 marketing year, up from 90.2 million for 2017-18. The trading volume for soybean, soymeal and soyoil is expected to stand at 142,833 lots, 179,677 lots and 185,120 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                         Cheng Yu