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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-November 6, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold fell to a one-week low on Friday as consensus-beating U.S. economic data pushed the dollar higher, outweighing the impact of a lackluster jobs report. Spot gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,267.95 an ounce, and was on track for third straight weekly decline.
U.S. job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, but wages grew at their slowest annual pace in more than 1-1/2 years in a sign that inflation probably will remain benign. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 261,000 last month. That was the largest gain since July 2016 but below economists' expectations for a jump of 310,000 jobs.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM rose 60.1 percent, the highest since August 2015,  which is 0.3 percentage point higher than the September reading of 59.8 percent, reported the Institue for Supply Management on Friday. Orders to U.S. factories rose 1.4 percent in September, following a 1.2 percent advance in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was higher than economists’ forecast of a 1.3 percent gain. Private data vendor Markit said its final U.S. October PMI remained unchanged at 55.3, lower than its flash estimate of 55.9.
These data raised the expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates the next year. The greenback gained as a result.
SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.4 percent on Thursday.
Meanwhile in Asia, demand for physical gold was lackluster this week in top consumers India and China, but India's peak wedding season is expected to usher in renewed interest for bullion in coming weeks.

Silver
Silver fell 1.7 percent to $16.78 an ounce as the dollar firmed on upbeat U.S. economic data. Technical front, silver prices were traded in a tighter range of $16.5 to $17.5 with solid support at $16.5. On trading strategy, investors are recommended to wait for opportunities after the aforementioned range was broken.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose on Friday, with U.S. crude touching a two-year high, strengthening after U.S. rig data suggested drilling in the United States would throttle back. U.S. energy companies cut eight oil rigs this week, the biggest reduction since May 2016, extending a drilling decline that started over the summer when prices slipped below $50 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up $1.10 or 2 percent, at $55.64 a barrel, the highest since July 2015. Global benchmark Brent futures settled up $1.45 or 2.4 percent at $62.07 a barrel. Brent has risen around 38 percent since its low in June 2017. Both grades gained more than 3 percent in the week.
Throughout the week, prices have been bolstered by rising global demand data. China's roughly 9 million bpd of imports have surpassed those of the United States to top the world's crude importer list.
Physical oil prices are also rising. Saudi Aramco, the UAE's ADNOC and Qatar Petroleum have all raised their crude prices for Asian buyers, with Aramco's December premium over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks now at the highest in three years.

Copper
LME three-month copper finished 0.5 percent weaker at $6,895 a tonne after closing little changed in the previous session, following a 10 percent gain in the past six weeks spurred by prospects for surging demand from electric vehicles.
A proposal to scrap U.S. subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) helped to dampen investor excitement. China’s government also took similar measures, dragging copper down. Some metals extended losses after the dollar index firmed on the back of strong U.S. economic data.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Friday, as Brazil's currency fell, making Brazilian soy more competitive on the global market. Chicago Board of Trade January soybeans settled down 12-1/2 cents at $9.86-3/4 per bushel, retreating from Thursday's 1-1/2 week high of $10.00-1/2. The contract remained stable this week, up 1/4 cents after dropped for two weeks.
CBOT December soymeal ended down $3.50 at $313.90 per short ton and December soyoil fell 0.44 cent at 34.42 cents per pound. The trading volume of soybean, soymeal and soyoil was expected at 197,630 lots, 79,978 lots and 124,867 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Lv Yan


(2017-11-06)
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