I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold edged up $1.2 to $1,293 an ounce on Thursday, failing to cross over the key resistance of $1,295 and $1,300.
Market was quiet, dominated by technical trading. Market moved in line with our views, saying “profit-taking bids in the near and medium term are expected to stay in the way for making breakthrough.” Technical elements were little changed. In addition, profit-taking and stop-loss usually strengthen ahead of weekend and public holidays. Under such circumstances, bullion is unlikely to trade around resistance level. Market will be dominated by successful breakthrough or sharp pullback, while consolidation is unlikely.
On trading strategy, we maintain our view that “for non-long-term positions, investors are not recommended to take risks by holding their positions. Market bulls are also not recommended to build positions at current level.”

Silver
Spot silver inched up 4 cents to $17.17 an ounce on Thursday. Our view that “silver will be dragged down by bullion” was in line with Thursday’s moves. Silver has regained the ground of $17 after holding above the level for two straight days, but is still likely to pull back as gold has not yet make successful breakthrough.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Brent crude oil settled down 69 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $56.25 a barrel while U.S. light crude ended down 70 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $50.60 a barrel. Oil prices ended lower on the day, after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand for 2018.
We said yesterday that “no clear sign in the market could convince us the OPEC’s forecast on rebalancing supply”, which is proved by Thursday’s market. Without break news in today’s market, we cannot make accurate forecast on future direction.

Copper
Copper prices hit their highest in more than a month on Thursday as a weaker dollar and strong demand from major consumer China. London Metal Exchange copper closed up 0.51 percent at $6,834.50 a tonne. We still believe that “little resistance can be met before hitting 7,000” as our view was confirmed by yesterday’s move.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures jumped to a 2-1/2-month high on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate in a monthly report. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans settled up 26-3/4 cents at $9.92 per bushel. December soymeal closed up 11.40 cents to $326.30 a tonne, while December soyoil ended up 0.13 cent at 33.28 cents per pound.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Zhao Yifei