I. Precious Metals Gold Gold rose 0.3 percent at $1,275.76 an ounce on Monday ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's expected announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair, and amid a slightly weaker U.S. Dollar and Federal investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election. The metal is facing a slew of potential risks this week, including a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, U.S. payrolls data on Friday, ongoing unrest in Spain's Catalonia region, and central bank meetings in Japan and UK. The U.S. dollar fell on Monday as political situations in the U.S. weighed on the dollar amid news that President Donald Trump's former campaign manager faces charges of conspiracy. Federal investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election charged President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort and another aide, Rick Gates, with money laundering on Monday. A third former Trump adviser, George Papadopoulos, pleaded guilty in early October to lying to the FBI. It was a sharp escalation of U.S. Justice Department Special Counsel Robert Mueller's five-month-old investigation. Fed governor Jerome Powell, considered a moderate, is widely tipped to take over from Janet Yellen when she steps down as Fed chair in February, reversing previous expectations over Stanford University economist John Taylor. The news dragged the dollar down and pushed gold up.
Silver Silver closed up 0.04 percent at $16.817 an ounce. On technical front, the white metal continued to trade between $16.5 to $17, and can hardly breach the range. Consolidation is quite likely. On trading strategy, investors are recommended to buy on dips and sell on high within the aforementioned range.
II. Commodities Crude Oil Brent oil closed on Monday at its highest level since July 2015 and U.S. crude closed at a peak not seen since February on expectations OPEC-led production cuts would be extended beyond March. Brent crude futures settled at $60.90 a barrel, up 46 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 25 cents at $54.15 a barrel, highest since Feb. 23, 2017. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and nine other producers agreed to cut 1.8 million barrels per day from January 2016 to clear a supply glut. The pact, already renewed once, runs to March 2018. But Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are leading the effort, have voiced support for a further extension. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman over the weekend repeated the kingdom's support for extending the deal. J.P. Morgan raised its 2018 Brent and WTI forecasts by $11 and $11.40 to $58 and $54.63 per barrel, respectively. The bank said the revision reflects OPEC and non-OPEC cuts and higher- than-expected demand growth tightening the oil market.
Copper Copper rose on Monday, pulling away from the previous session's two-week low as a retreat in the dollar after its biggest one-week gain this year tempted buyers back to the metal. Demand for base metals was underpinned by upbeat U.S. GDP data in the third quarter and stronger economic report. London Metal Exchange copper ended the day up 0.5 percent at $6,867 a tonne. The dollar slipped on Monday after its biggest weekly rise this year, while world stocks hit another record high as European shares were lifted by easing concerns over the political crisis in Spain. Glencore lowered its production forecast for copper on Monday, citing operational difficulties, maintenance and end-of-mine-life declines. Hedge funds and money managers in the week to Oct. 24 raised their net long positions in copper by 1,026 contracts to 108,739 contracts, a six-week high, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
Soybean U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday as forecasters expect good precipitation in several key soybean areas of Brazil after a dry start to the planting. The benchmark January futures closed below its 20-day moving average. The soybean harvest is expected to be 83 percent complete ahead of USDA's weekly crop report. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans were 2-1/2 cents lower at $9.72-3/4 per bushel. December soymeals were up $0.2 at $312.3 per short tonne. December soyoil ended down 0.16 cent at 34.68 cents per pound. The trading volume of soybean, soymeal and soyoil was expected at 328,260 lots, 75,246 lots and 83,772 lots respectively.
Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch Lv Yan
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