I. Precious Metals Gold Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday from the previous session's 13-month high as relief that North Korea did not conduct a missile test over the weekend helped to lift global stocks, the U.S. dollar and bond yields. The dollar strengthened on Monday, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially reducing demand, while higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding bullion. Demand for safer assets, including gold, also weakened after Hurricane Irma wreaked less damage in Florida than had been feared. On Friday it touched $1,357.54, the highest since August last year, on fears of a North Korean missile launch and the impact of Irma on the U.S. economy, helping to drive the dollar to its weakest since January 2015 and U.S. bond yields to 10-month lows. On technical front, gold tumbled on Monday, posing the largest one-day decline since July 3, after fierce fight around $1,350. Further correction is expected in the near term, which will be determined by the dollar and U.S. bond. Investors may choose to stay on the sidelines if bullion crossed below $1,320.
Silver Silver fell 0.8 percent to $17.78 an ounce, down from Friday's five-month high of $18.21. It hit the trough of $17.71 during the session. On technical front, silver is under heavy pressure of profit-taking and bearish bets as it met little resistance in the wave of rally since August 25. The support between $17.73 to $17.80 shall be watched. Investors may cash in profits in long positions in case that gold pulls back to $1,320.
II. Commodities Crude Oil Oil prices rose on Monday as key U.S. refineries began restarts following Hurricane Harvey, which may help revive crude oil processing, while fuel prices fell as Hurricane Irma is likely to clip demand for gasoline and diesel. The possibility of an extension to the 15-month production pact between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers also helped to support prices, traders said. Brent crude oil futures settled up 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $53.84 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 59 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $48.07. WTI prices are expected to remain rangebound after Hurricane Irma wreaked less damage in Florida than had been feared. While oil prices are expected to retain steam under the support of the 50-day moving average.
Copper Copper rebounded on Monday as investors and consumers took advantage of a sell-off on Friday to buy at lower levels, with strong economic data from top metals consumer China also supporting the market. China's inflation data came out better than expected. Consumer inflation quickened more than forecast to a seven-month high in August, and producer price inflation also accelerated more than expected to a four-month high. LME three-month copper rose 0.8 percent to end at $6,748 a tonne following a 3 percent fall on Friday. Copper is expected to see a consolidation or correction in the near term on lingering tensions and as the market has been defying fundamentals.
Soybean Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed lower Monday on technical selling. CBOT November soybeans settled down 2 cents at $9.60 per bushel. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), through its daily reporting system, said private exporters sold 352,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations. The USDA also reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.1 million tonnes, topping a range of trade expectations. We maintain our bullish view on soybean as the technical selling is expected to have a limited impact on the upward momentum, while the monthly supply/demand reports due Tuesday from the USDA would boost soybean prices.
Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch Huang Han
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