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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-September 27, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Spot gold dipped more than 1 percent after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank needed to continue gradual rate hikes despite broad uncertainty about the path of inflation, acknowledging the central bank's struggles to forecast one of its key policy objectives. It "would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2 percent, Yellen said. Gold was weighed down as the dollar shot up, while treasury yields edged slightly higher.
On technical front, spot gold settled above the 50-day moving average of $1,292.99, and is expected to cross below the level despite of some support. The next support will move down to around $1,268 amid bearish sentiment. On trading strategy, investors are recommended to sell gold on highs.

Silver
Spot silver tumbled 2.04 percent to $16.83 an ounce, well underperforming bullion. The while metal currently could find support at $16.8. If breaching down, the next support can be found at $16.3-16.4. The outlook is bearish in the near term.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices ended 1 percent lower on Tuesday after investors took profits following a rally spurred largely by a planned independence referendum in Kurdish northern Iraq. A representative from an independent committee said the result will be disclosed on Thursday. Opinion polls in Kurdistan are showed over 70 percent voters in favor of independence. Despite that Thursday's poll showed a comfortable majority in favor of independence, Kurdistan region is unlikely to announce independence as Turkey, Iran and Iraq have agreed to consider counter-measures against the independence referendum and Turkey threatened to cut crude exports, the pillar industry of Iraq's Kurdistan region. This is definitely not the Kurdish political parties want to see if this really happens.
On technical front, investors are recommended to build short positions as both WTI and Brent peaked on chart. But they shall set stop-loss to avoid extreme situations.

Copper
Copper closed lower on Tuesday, extending four straight days of losses as oil prices retreated from the previous session's more than two-year high and the dollar strengthened. London Metal Exchange copper ended the day down 0.6 percent at $6,411 a tonne. Prices touched their lowest since mid-August on Friday at $6,366 a tonne. Investors are recommended to short copper as the metal is expected to test previous support at $6,300 amid bearish sentiment.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Tuesday on technical selling combined with better-than-expected yield reports from the Midwest. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans settled down 7-3/4 cents at $9.63-1/2 per bushel after hitting a one-week low of $9.62-1/2. After a two-day losing streak, the MACD index showed a weakening trend with the next support at $9.50.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Qin Gang


(2017-09-27)
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