I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold rebounded above a six-week low to $1,287.43 per ounce on Thursday, as the dollar index turned lower and ushered in short-covering after testing the resistance of 93.5. We believe that technical factors were behind yesterday’s gains as the market was quiet and technical Fibonacci support for gold was at $1,281. Bullion’s strength will be determined by the movement around the key mark of $1,296 and $1,300 in the near term. A successful breakthrough will trigger a new round of rally.
On the daily chart, the resistance above will determine gold’s future direction. Without an effective breakthrough, investors will maintain their bearish view on gold. On Friday, U.S. Consumer Spending in August and Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index in September will be released. Investors shall closely watch their impact on gold prices.

Silver
Spot silver closed at $16.85 an ounce on Thursday, remaining unchanged for the second consecutive day. Investors shall keep an eye on the movement around $17. The trading strategy will be same with gold. The dollar shall be closely watched in case geopolitical worries over North Korea remain subdued.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices slipped on Thursday. U.S. crude settled down to $51.56 a barrel, while Brent ended down at $57.41 a barrel. Tension around northern Iraq following the Kurdistan region's vote in favor of independence spurred fresh supply concerns, but nothing serious happened yet. Turkey promised on Thursday to deal only with the Iraqi government on crude, the office of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories fell by 1.846 million barrels in the week ended September 22. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock gain of around 3.1 million barrels. An unexpected building of gasoline stockpiles suggests dwindling demand, weighing on oil.
U.S. rig count data in the week ended September 29 will be released on Saturday. Any increase will pull oil prices down. Investors shall remain cautious to stop chasing highs.

Copper
London Metal Exchange copper closed up 1.3 percent at $6,522 a tonne on Thursday as speculators regarded prices as good value after recent losses. Some analysts warned, however, that demand in China was weak. On technical front, the MACD momentum column points to bearish, but shorts’ strength is weakening, adding to bouncing of the RSI from oversold range in suggesting that the base metal is expected to rebound in the near term. But we doubt the rebounding strength.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell to a two-week low on Thursday on pressure from the expanding U.S. harvest and technical selling a day ahead of key U.S. government crop reports, analysts said. Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans settled down 6 cents at $9.59-1/2 per bushel, after hitting the lowest since September 13 at $9.57-1/2 a bushel. On trading strategy, investors shall sell on highs in the near term.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Qin Gang